Updated: Survey results appear to be inconsistent

Update (March 24): I misinterpreted what "we report on the percentage of survey respondents who give a rating of 6 or higher" meant. It's not a subset of the sample, but it's exactly how it's described: a percentage of those who rated 6 or higher. So, yes, about half of females feel safe waiting for a bus late at night. As I looked through some of the summarized results sent to OC Transpo, which were made available today, from the survey research firm Core Strategies, some of the numbers regarding service weren't consistent with what OC had presented. A rating of 7.3 was given to route planning in OC Transpo presentation slides, but in the newly released document, a 6.7 rating was listed. Stats on safety appear to be consistent, so there's less concern with the results of safety questions now from what I can see. Summary tables of each survey question were published via the Sun's Jon Willing.

OC Transpo presented its 2013 survey results on customer satisfaction to the Transit Commission on Wednesday. The transit agency received a rating of at least "good" from 80% of transit users in a sample of 1525 transit and non-transit users in Ottawa. It's the highest proportion since 2008, when the winter strike began in December. The telephone survey, which has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points overall and 4 percentage points for transit users, was conducted in November and December.

Ratings on various aspects of service quality rise compared to the past few years. Route planning increased by nearly a whole point in one year (from 6.4 in 2012 to 7.3 in 2013), even though there have been no major routing changes since "route optimization" in 2011. A 7.3 rating for planning, is in fact, the highest in any one year going back to 2008.

This year, OC Transpo has included more questions about safety, which they keep saying is their number one priority. The statistics on customer feelings towards safety are not based on the sample, but on a subset of it. Only those who gave OC Transpo a favourable rating on safety were counted: "We report on the percentage of survey respondents who give a rating of 6 or higher" (on slides 35, 40, 44). So, anyone reporting a "5" or less are inexplicably excluded. It means, for example, the proportion of female customers who feel safe waiting for a bus late at night is probably not 49% as stated. It's very likely to be much lower when the less satisfied respondents are included. Percentages in the high 90's are probably far away from the true values too.

A whole survey section is dedicated to safety and security and somehow, meaningful statistics are hidden from public viewing.

OC Transpo ridership down again, three-year lows expected for 2013

As reported in the Citizen and Sun last week, OC Transpo's ridership are down yet again for the third quarter of 2013. From the Citizen's coverage:

"According to newly released figures for July, August and September, OC Transpo gave 21.1 million rides in those months, down 3.9 per cent from the year before."

OC Transpo continues to place the blame on job cuts in the federal public service, although that seems like it's just their best guess--there are likely other factors that could be at play, including the introduction of Presto cards, the phasing out of EcoPasses, recent and continuing increases in bus fares, and construction-related transit delays.

The continued ridership decline means that OC Transpo is expecting to fall below 100 million rides for 2013, despite exceeding that number in 2012 (101 million) and 2011 (103.5 million). It's unclear at this point whether ridership will even match numbers from 2010 (99.3 million), which could mean this year will be the worst for OC Transpo since the 2008-09 winter transit strike.

No one wants to talk about that thing again...

Ridership and regional employment by the numbers

OC Transpo's most recent quarterly performance report indicated ridership dropped by 2.2 percent compared to the same period last year. Whenever there is a fall in ridership, all kinds of theories are tossed around, most of them involving the transit agency: fare hikes, service cuts, bad drivers, etc. While some of these factors will have an effect of some kind on ridership, they do not largely explain variation in ridership levels. The report to the Transit Commission states another factor, unrelated to transit fares and service:

“Historically, changes in employment in Ottawa-Gatineau have explained approximately 80 percent of changes in overall ridership.”

Ridership seems to be closely tied to the number of people employed in the National Capital Region. These are quarterly changes; But how much does employment affect ridership year-by-year? I decided to crunch some numbers myself using annual ridership figures (1996-2012) obtained from various sources: OC's website, a data set in a much earlier article on Transit Ottawa, and monthly employment data of Ottawa-Gatineau region from Statistics Canada. The employment data goes only as far back as 1996. To calculate the annual number of employees, an unweighted average was applied for simplicity.

The data suggests a strong positive relation between regional employment and transit ridership in Ottawa:

About 86% of the variation in ridership can be explained by the number of people employed. When the strike years (2008, 2009) are removed, the relationship is close to perfect:

An astounding 97% of the fluctuation in ridership can be explained by regional employment since 1996, considering OC Transpo serves a small area of Gatineau. But the idea of employment, in general, being nearly 100% correlated to transit ridership is quite remarkable. As we can see, there's very little OC Transpo can do to improve transit usage that will have a similar impact as local job growth.

In order to determine the marginal effect of an additional worker would have on the number of OC Transpo trips, we'll use a least squares regression analysis. With all years included (1996-2012) in the regression, the number of service days affected by the 2008-09 labour dispute is added as a variable. Here are the results of this regression:

As expected, the coefficient estimates of employment and strike days are both statistically significant, even with only 17 observations. This model is a tremendous fit for the data as shown by the R-square of 0.956.

The 2008-09 winter strike is an obvious reason for the temporary drop in annual ridership. The estimate suggests an additional day, weekday or weekend, of the strike decreased 2008 or 2009 ridership by 428 835 trips on average when all other factors are held constant. The number is somewhat high because OC Transpo's figure for ridership on an average weekday in 2012 is 400 000, but appears to be rounded down though.

As for employment, an additional worker in Ottawa-Gatineau leads to an increase of 166 trips or 83 round trips on average, if all other factors are held constant. It's equivalent to nearly four months of transit travel on weekdays. If that person were to buy four monthly passes, that's somewhere between $395 and $488, depending on whether it's a regular or express pass, in annual revenue for OC Transpo. In this case, it's hardly much.

But let's say 500 people lost their jobs in one year and remained out of work the next year. If each worker bought four monthly passes on average while employed, OC Transpo would have lost approximately $197,500 in revenue, on average, the following year. Whether there is a large number jobs created or lost, it will make a noticeable difference in OC Transpo's budget.

Employment seems to have a stronger relationship with ridership on an annual basis than on a quarterly basis. During seasonal changes, other short-term factors emerge like school days, weather, gas prices, or a fare hike. None of them are as economically or statistically significant as the number employed, a variable rarely discussed among everyday transit users going to work.

All-time high OC Transpo ridership in 2010 Q4

According to CTV, ridership at OC Transpo hit an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2010:

The latest figures from the city show OC Transpo ridership increased by more than five per cent over the same quarter in 2009.

The city says the introduction of the U-pass was a large contributor to the spike. It's estimated the bus pass contributed to an additional 300,000 student trips each month.

The news is good for two reasons: First, it proves that students at Carleton University and the University of Ottawa are making full use of their significantly discounted universal student bus passes. This shows that the investment the city's making is working, and that students are making use of the opportunities afforded through the U-Pass. But more significantly, it looks like there are no residual effects resulting from the winter transit strike of 2008-09. Ridership numbers had fallen in both 2008 and 2009, but it wasn't clear whether that was caused entirely by the service disruption or whether people had found other ways of getting around the city. Although we haven't yet seen the full annual number for ridership in 2010, this most recent announcement suggests we're going to see a spike in ridership compared to past years. OC Transpo's all-time high ridership was 95,646,026, set in 2007.

Good news in OC Transpo negotiations

For most of this round of negotiations, both the City of Ottawa and the ATU 279 representing OC Transpo drivers and mechanics have been saying the right things. That continued last week, despite the fact that as of last Thursday, the union is actually working without a contract while their representatives continue negotiating. New president of the ATU 279 Garry Queale is talking the talk, with regard to good-faith negotiations. From the Ottawa Citizen:

“The contract has expired, but at this point in time the union wants to finish what wasn’t finished in the 2008 contract — the scheduling issues, and when that is finished we are ready to move to the new contract. My goal is to get this scheduling issue finished ‘ASAP’ and then let’s move on to new negotiations and get something settled there,” he said.

“We will continue working as if we are under a contract that’s been grandfathered, and hopefully someday soon, we will start collective bargaining for 2011.”

Once the old issues are settled, Queale said the union will start serious bargaining to reach an agreement that works for the workers and the city.

“I don’t want a work stoppage or strike. We want to negotiate in good faith and get a deal for the membership that we can live with, and that doesn’t jeopardize transit users,” he said.

No one from the city has been quoted recently about negotiations, but there's little doubt that nobody wants a transit strike. Hopefully negotiations continue fairly and uneventfully, and we find a mutually acceptable solution before the fact that there is currently no contract becomes a big issue.

Cooler heads need to prevail in OC Transpo contract negotiations

Through the 2008-09 winter transit strike and ever since, citizens in Ottawa have been witness to the back-and-forth between OC Transpo and the Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU) 279, which represents OC Transpo operators and mechanics, about (along with other issues) scheduling. OC Transpo General Manager Alain Mercier has a number of ideas which, by his numbers, would increase efficiency and improve service for Ottawa transit system; the ATU, led by current vice-president Mike Aldrich, thinks most of the changes will do the opposite, and also says they'll further poison the work environment at OC Transpo. For most citizens, it's a debate short on provable facts and high on rhetoric, which makes it all the more frustrating for most.

Last week in the Ottawa Citizen, Randall Denley waded into the debate, offering a column that indicated support for Mercier and management as the decision-makers. From his column:

Mayor Jim Watson said Monday he wanted to get the facts on the table as the city heads into contract negotiations so that “urban myths” weren’t allowed to persist. Good idea.

The problem with running an organization like OC Transpo is that every employee and bus rider fancies himself an expert because he knows something about some element of this complex service.

What is little appreciated is that the current Transpo management has brought rationality and a numbers-driven approach to running a bus company that used to be an amateur operation. Mercier won’t win any popularity contests, but most of what he does is soundly supported by numbers and analysis.

Unfortunately, numbers and analysis are never as compelling for an individual as his direct experience, however limited that might be.

Denley also spoke about a few other issues currently being debated between two sides. But through it all, Denley made one especially prescient point: No matter whether the ATU is in the right or the wrong, their attempts to gain publicity for the issues have for the most part backfired. The public hasn't been sympathetic to the concerns of drivers, and for the most part the perception--whether rightly or wrongly--is that operators are compensated well for their work, and if they are unhappy with what they get, there are many others prepared to step in and accept it (that was also the tone Denley ended his column on, as well: "OC Transpo who really think the job is terrible should quit and give the opportunity to someone who wants it."). That's a dangerous stance to take with any group of workers (imagine the experience that would be lost), but it seems a fairly common sentiment. The union lost the battle for public opinion in the last round of negotiations; they would do well to heed lessons learned and keep their tactics to the bargaining table, especially with a mayor who seems more willing to play fair this time around.

It does seem that the union realizes there are things they can do to improve their reputation among the public. On the OC Transpo LiveJournal, a hub dominated largely by operators, user mayorzero published an entry called "Stop The Whining", asking his fellow members to stop complaining to the media about their working conditions, pointing specifically to this letter published in the Citizen from a 30-year veteran of OC Transpo. Mayorzero speaks to Denley's column:

While most of Denley's column is complete and utter crap (as usual), he does make a number of good points too, and the union and membership should take note.

[...]

So please stop whining on Facebook, blogs, letters to the editor,
(especially) CFRA etc, etc. Every time somebody whines on behalf of the membership, the public and the majority of the media just bury our asses further and further.

All we should be hearing from the union right now is exactly what we are hearing from Jim Watson: "We will not be negotiating in public, we will bring the issues before our membership and will provide information at the appropriate time."

It would seem that new ATU president Garry Queale is handling things the right way: Say the right things about wanting to avoid a transit strike, issuing complaints through the appropriate agencies (like the Canada Industrial Relations Board, which was sent a complaint a few weeks ago) instead of through the media, and--basically--taking the high road in the negotiations. The city and OC Transpo has done a good job this time around keeping their tone civil.

But one thing that absolutely must change, if we're seriously going to see an improvement in relations? Regular citizens of Ottawa, the people who take the bus or even those who only pay taxes, need to show a little bit of respect and respectability here. ATU members are fighting to get a bit more money from you, yes, but they're also human beings, with families and lives. So treat them with the respect they deserve.

Everyone's talking about another OC Transpo strike

It seems like everyone's pretty pessimistic about the possibility of avoiding a transit strike during this year's negotiations between OC Transpo and the City of Ottawa. Considering the virulent back-and-forth between both sides through the last one, people can probably be forgiven for their cynicism.

Although the possibility of a strike has been in everyone's mind for quite a few weeks, it really took off when former mayor Larry O'Brien penned a guest column for the Ottawa Citizen suggesting that we're headed down the same road as we were last time. David Reevely pointed out a few falsehoods in O'Brien's op/ed on the Greater Ottawa blog, but even if the factors O'Brien pointed to are flawed, the fact that some of the same issues which caused the last transit strike remain unsolved is undeniable.

On the plus side, no one wants a transit strike. Or at least both sides say they want to avoid one. From the city's perspective, a strike would be disastrous, and would likely be something saddled on mayor Jim Watson--whether it's fair or not--after he promised to work on repairing strained relations with OC Transpo. Unions never really want to go on strike, but it is one of few options available to them in negotiation; still, with the last strike so fresh in their minds, you've got to think the ATU 279 are especially dreading the possibility--their new president, Garry Queale, said in one of his first interviews that he's not in favour of a strike (although his predecessor, Mike Aldrich, said the same thing weeks before walking away from negotiations).

If you think Toronto's recent advances towards an essential service designation for the TTC might pave the way for a similar one in Ottawa, don't count on it. Neither the city nor the union are in favour of the designation, and also anything in Ottawa would have to go through the federal government (which in the past had no interest) rather than the provincial.

So the negotiators from the city and the union will have to figure it out themselves. Well, once they get back to negotiating...

Transit union has a new president

As you might have seen reported in most Ottawa news media, the Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU) local 279 elected a new president last week. The new boss is Garry Queale, a longtime driver and dispatcher for OC Transpo, and his first comments should be welcome: "I want to negotiate a fair deal for our members, and not do it through the TV and radio and newspapers."

His full (and brief) comment, from the Ottawa Citizen:

"My priority is to work within the membership to boost morale and work with the city together, and not through the media," said Queale, a longtime dispatcher with OC Transpo. "We’ve been through lots of battles and I want to negotiate a fair deal for our members, and not do it through the TV and radio and newspapers. I know Mayor Jim Watson; I’m sure I can work with him."

The last president of the ATU 279 was certainly commendable for the passion with which he fought for his union, but came under fire for his unapologetic comments in the media. And acting president Mike Aldrich, who served while Cornellier he was in poor health and since his mid-January passing, was no stranger to the media, and routinely offered his comments whenever asked--whether the subject was his membership, or simply OC Transpo as a whole.

Citizens and ATU members are both likely relieved to see someone who, at least initially, is more interested in negotiating with the city rather than negotiating through the media. The toxic atmosphere through 2008-09 transit strike was contributed to by poor choices on both sides, and poor decisions made by both Cornellier and former mayor Larry O'Brien in particular. Hopefully in this round of negotiations, with the sides led by quieter leaders Queale and Watson, we'll see a more amicable resolution.

Outsourcing an issue between city, union

One issue that didn't get as much coverage in the winter transit strike of 2008-09 but remains a significant one is the outsourcing of labour at OC Transpo. The Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU) local 279, representing operators, obviously doesn't like the idea, but the city maintained that it was something they could use to keep operating costs lower. It's become an issue once again, according to 580 CFRA:

The vice president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Mike Aldrich says safety inspections for busses are being delayed because OC Transpo management didn't submit the required paperwork in time.

Mike Aldrich says it means the work - normally done by union members - is being outsourced to commercial garages in the city.

"It's just another way of somebody dropping the ball in management," says Aldrich. "Someone has got to be accountable for this."

Relations between the two sides seem to be improving, but this is one issue which will certainly continue to come up in the ongoing negotiations between the two sides.

A great new year's resolution: Avoid a transit strike

According to a report from 580 CFRA, that's exactly what at least one of the parties involved has resolved to do.

The head of the union representing OC Transpo drivers, dispatchers and mechanics is telling commuters not to put "too much worry" into the threat of a transit strike.

Contract negotiations between OC Transpo and the Amalgamated Transit Union will ramp up in January.

ATU Acting President Mike Aldrich tells CFRA News his New Year's resolution is to ensure a bus strike is not repeated.

So that's a plus. Because if there's one thing I'd rather not blog about in this year, it's labour strife at OC Transpo.

Is OC Transpo an essential service?

Public transit news made some waves earlier in the week when the Ottawa Sun ran a cover story featuring Toronto mayor Rob Ford saying that Ottawa should make OC Transpo an essential service, similar to what he's trying to do with public transit in his city.

“They should do the same thing,” said Ford when contacted by the Ottawa Sun on the subject. “It’s definitely an issue. We had 13 strikes in Toronto and it cost us $50 million a day.”

My immediate reaction was: Why are we asking the mayor of another city why Ottawa's public transit should be declared an essential service?

But after deciding to move beyond that question, I remembered the discussion of making OC Transpo an essential service in the aftermath of the 2008-09 winter transit strike. The Canadian Industrial Relations Board, which has jurisdiction over OC Transpo because of the inter-provincial routes included, sought to determine whether or not such a designation was fitting, and both the city and the union argued that it wasn't an essential service. Certain citizen groups had argued in favour of the designation, but given those counter-arguments, it wasn't done.

In response to Ford's comments, Amalgamated Transit Union 279 interim president Mike Aldrich said he was "surprised" by the comments.

My opinion on the matter is that public transit is most definitely an essential service for some people in the city. Although legislating it would be difficult, a partial solution for Ottawa may be designating the core of OC Transpo service essential (for instance, Transitway routes 95-96-97 and select others, like the 106), as was suggested by Klaus Beltzner (B.Sc., M.Math., M.B.A, and member of Friends of the O-Train) a couple of years back.

A change of tone between the OC Transpo and the union

Well this is a refreshing dose of positive news.

Less than a week ago, I posted about early jockeying between the city and the Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU) 279 as the two sides were preparing to negotiate an extension to their agreement to keep OC Transpo buses running. It seemed the hostility between the two sides hadn't faded at all, and didn't bode well for negotiations.

But now, things seem to be a little different. Mayor Jim Watson met with acting president of the ATU 279 Mike Aldrich on Monday to discuss the future of Ottawa public transit (and preventing another transit strike), and Transit Commission acting chair Diane Deans is to meet with Aldrich on Tuesday for the same thing. The two had earlier said their interest was in smoothing relations between OC Transpo and the union, but hadn't done anything to put substance behind their words; opening up communication is a good place to start.

But it takes two sides to negotiate, and it looks like Aldrich is ready to do so now, too. On Monday, in an interview with the Ottawa Sun, Aldrich seemed to be moving forward with the negotiations:

Aldrich said he’s “looking forward” to the upcoming negotiations and hinted that things will be different with the ATU now under his leadership and not that of former president Andre Cornellier.

“It will be a whole new way of negotiating. We’re going to get rid of the adversarial attitude and get along. We (the ATU and the city) want to have a world-class transit system,” he said.

“This is the public’s transit system and I don’t want to use the public as pawns, we had 54 days of that s**t. It’s the last thing we want.”

There's some passion there, and it's a passion to find a proper agreement before push comes to shove and a strike seems inevitable. All of a sudden, I'm fairly optimistic these two sides can figure this thing out.

Jockeying starts early for city, union in negotiations

Although the contract between the Amalgamated Transit Union 279 and OC Transpo doesn't expire until March 2011, and with the winter 2008-09 53-day transit strike still fresh in our minds, both sides of the labour agreement have already started posturing to gain advantage in the upcoming labour talks.

Through his mayoral campaign and since, mayor Jim Watson has been stating his intention to mend the relationship between the city and the union; on the day she was selected as chair of the transit commission, Gloucester-Southgate Councillor Diane Deans talked to CTV Ottawa about "a new era of co-operation" between the two sides. Although it's still very early in their respective mandates (Deans was just approved as chair of the commission yesterday), neither has done much, if anything, in the way of tangible action to change anything.

Meanwhile, OC Transpo general manager Alain Mercier has initiated a survey of workers to get to the bottom of the seemingly ever-present low morale issues at OC Transpo--a survey which, according to acting president of the ATU 279 Mike Aldrich, is identical to one which was done five years ago, as reported by the Ottawa Citizen. Aldrich said issues are the same as were determined in the previous survey--"running times, scheduling and poor morale throughout the company"--and didn't approve sending the survey out.

On the other side, the ATU 279 leadership is using some more strongly-armed tactics, putting pressure on the city to make changes even before the union will agree to come to the table. Aldrich has complained that the negotiating team--led by Mercier--is the same as it was during the last negotiation, and that he wants to see some "changes" before proceeding with negotiations. From the CBC:

"We have the same players negotiating the same proposals," said Aldrich, referring to the 51-day strike in 2008-09 that shut down buses in the city.

"We know what happened last time. I'm not interested in going down that road."

[...]

"One of [Watson's] campaign promises was to repair the poisoned atmosphere at OC Transpo but so far nothing has been fixed," Aldrich said. "So until we see some changes, or improvements, we'll wait."

Although posturing such as this isn't really uncommon in labour discussions, it's still a little unsettling to hear that issues remain, and that these issues are enough to delay advance negotiations. On the plus side, both sides have said they want to avoid a strike; Aldrich told the CBC that there is "no way the union wants a strike".

2010 Election: Watson on OC Transpo

Over the course of the 2010 Mayoral Election campaign, Public Transit in Ottawa will be sitting down with as many mayoral candidates as are available, discussing their platforms and thoughts on transit in this city, and what they hope to achieve during their mandate, if elected mayor.

Ask just about anyone in this city, and you'll likely get an idea from them on how OC Transpo could improve their service--and maybe you'd get as many different answers as people you've asked, running the spectrum of feasibility from easily-implemented to downright impossible. And mayoral candidate Jim Watson has some ideas of his own. Obviously, Watson wants to establish a transit commission to manage the utility, but he's also entertained other ideas.

Among the most pressing concerns Watson has is the cool relationship between OC Transpo staff and management. Watson had some critical words for current mayor Larry O'Brien regarding the transit strike, and suggested a change in mayor would--in his opinion--be positive of OC Transpo relations. But he also prescribes a general change in the tone of discourse, from the combative stance that seems to have taken over to a more co-operative one.

I think it starts at the top. I have respect for all the employees, I don’t treat them as subservient or as an irritant, I see them as a vital part of providing a good public service. I think one of the first things that any new mayor is going to have to do is to bridge those relationships on a more positive footing. It’s a very unpleasant environment at OC Transpo, from all the bus drivers and mechanics that I’ve spoken to, even supervisors and management, I think they feel very frustrated, and we still have not resolved all the problems that have emanated from the strike.

But beyond improving staff relations, Watson also wants to improve the efficiency of the service, to avoid rising taxes and rising fares. He thinks the new commission will have its hands full finding ways to do that, but one small suggestion he has made is the use of smaller buses run through lower-density areas to bring riders to the main routes.

I often will go into a suburban neighbourhood where there’s a huge bus going through and there’s two or three people on the bus. Calgary has a feeder-bus system where it’s almost like minivans will go in and pick people up; saves on fuel, saves on overhead costs, makes the system more efficient. So are there things that we can do to make the system more efficient from a creative point of view? I think there are, and I think that’s one of the mandates to give to the transit commission when they conduct their review of this. If there’s ways of saving money and improving service at the same time, then we should keep our minds open to those ideas.

A historical look at OC Transpo ridership: Redux

Earlier in September, I posted a basic informational graph on OC Transpo ridership, since its first days in 1972. Just the simple facts: How ridership has dipped and risen over the last four decades.

Seizing on that information, frequent commenter on the site took the data a step further, comparing it to Ottawa's population--and graciously sending me the outcome. A note about the data: These graphs are from 1976, the earliest date census metropolitan area (CMA) was available, and they also only use population information for the Ontario portion of Ottawa (so Hull/Gatineau is not included in the population, although there may be riders from Hull/Gatineau affecting the OC Transpo ridership numbers).

First up is a comparative graph, showing the erratic and unpredictable trend in OC Transpo ridership (the blue line) compared to the relatively steady--and in fact steepening--population trend (the red line). The final significant dip in ridership is partially, if not entirely, due to the 2008-09 winter transit strike, but one fact is evident: The modal share devoted to public transit took a huge hit through most of the 1990s, and was slowly recovering--until the strike.

The trend of declining modal share is demonstrated, in some way, by the graphic below. Although this isn't quite modal share--it's the number of trips taken on OC Transpo per capita. Which shows what was described above: The 1990s were devastating for public transit use in Ottawa, and despite some improvements in the first have of the 2000s, public transit use per capita has drastically fallen off since its peaks in the first half of the 1980s.

Thanks once again to WJM for the great work on these infographics. News reports have been positive in terms of ridership so far in 2010, but we won't know until the entire year's numbers are out whether the strike was a blip on the radar, or part of a greater decline.

UPDATE: Some astute comments on this post. Whether it be by some coincidence or not, OC Transpo ridership per capita's precipitous decline began in earnest around 1983, the same year the Transitway began operation. While it seems counter-intuitive, commenter David summed up reasonable conclusions to draw on the graph as such:

What these graphs show beyond any doubt is that the Transitway has NOT led to an increase in ridership in Ottawa, much as certain BRT devotees (e.g. Andy Haydon) like to think otherwise.

While the fact that ridership, when overall population is taken into effect, went down with the beginning of the Transitway is an undeniable conclusion, it certainly doesn't mean that the Transitway has made public transit less attractive to commuters and riders (although construction of the Transitway, and the delays and confusion that goes therewith, might have done so). It does, however, mean that the Transitway hasn't made public transit any more attractive to commuters potential riders, as evidence by the fact that they haven't flooded OC Transpo--and in fact the opposite, as commuters have in fact fled from it.

A historical look at OC Transpo ridership

Above is a chart illustrating the ridership trend for OC Transpo (click to enlarge), from when the corporation was established in 1972 until last year, 2009. That first year, ridership was 37.544 million. The high point in ridership, denoted by the letter C on the draft, was of 95.646 million, in 2007.

Two of the low points on the graph were ridership dips due to extended labour stoppages. The first was a 20-day strike in 1979, which became known as the 'five-cent bus strike' because five cents was all that stood between the two sides. The second, much fresher in the minds of Ottawa commuters, was the 51-day 2008-09 winter transit strike, which brought ridership down in 2008 and especially in 2009.

The other big dip in the graph came to a head with 64.812 million rides in 1996, denoted by point B on the graph. Ridership had declined 11 of 12 years from 1984 until that year (which also had a 21-day strike to go along with the downward trend). A few years earlier, as a response to the declining ridership, a comprehensive review of OC Transpo operations was undertaken to find the root causes. Part of the problem was almost certainly the steady and steep rise of fares: Cash fares were only $0.65 in 1981, but they broke the one-dollar mark in 1985 and had climbed to $1.50 by 1987, and $2.00 by 1992. All told, fares rose more than 300% in slightly more than ten years. They were brought back in check after the transit strike in 1996, when fares were actually reduced to $1.85.

Since then, fares have continued to rise, although not at the pace seen through the 1980s. Today they sit at $3.25, although the difference between ticket and fare prices has never been greater. But fare-setting is a process of trial-and-error, awaiting that point where the the cost becomes a barrier preventing increasing ridership.

How bad are relations between OC Transpo and its union?

Late last week, a possible deal between OC Transpo and its drivers was rejected by the drivers' union. It was disappointing to see the issue continue to go on unresolved, but the motion seemed to point to one positive fact: Communication between the two sides is ongoing. Given the intense negativity leading up to, during, and since the 2008-09 transit strike, any communication must be a good thing.

Right?

Hopefully. But as David Reevely points out in his latest column at Greater Ottawa, the ATU 279 membership, it appears, is "militant". With that in mind, who knows whether or not the results of these votes are true disagreement with the agreement put forward, or just rejected out of spite? From Reevely's blog:

"The dangerous problem I see isn't that the OC Transpo union members are militant. They were pretty badly put upon at the time of the last strike, by managers who wanted to take away an extremely important element in their contract with apparently no understanding of why it was there in the first place (letting drivers, in particular, have considerable control over their own work schedules was a key move in an effort to detoxify the OC Transpo workplace after the deadly Pierre Lebrun shootings a decade ago). I can see where the militancy comes from, and anyway, tough but skilled managers can deal with a militant union membership in a non-destructive fashion. They did it after the shootings, for example."

Leading up to the vote, on the OC Transpo livejournal, user roadwarrier came out in support of the agreement. Roadwarrier is one of the more vocal operators on the LiveJournal, and he tried to convince his brothers and sisters why it wasn't such a bad deal--or at least to explain why he was voting yes.

"Well gang, I was one of the big naysayers, no at any cost, with a serious vendetta against management. Quite frankly, I walked into the meeting ready to vote this thursday, ready to vote no at any cost, no matter how good the offer was.

"And I've done a 180. The executive has worked very hard to get some strong language and some real goodies for us. Stuff that's going to cost the company a lot of money and that really benefits us. Stuff that wasn't on the table when we walked and stuff that was on the table. At the end of the day, my gut tells me that this is a very good offer and the only reason the offer is so good is that the city knows they can't keep going with the way it is."

Since roadwarrier's post, a series of follow-up threads were posted leading up to the vote: Titles such as "NOT SUCH A GREAT DEAL", "Vague language in Contract - vote NO unless rectified", "VOTE NO! VOTE NO! VOTE NO! VOTE NO! VOTE NO! VOTE NO! VOTE NO! VOTE NO! VOTE NO!", "Vote No", and "Why I've decided to vote no" were all put up. They acknowledged "minor improvements" for drivers, but cautioned union members to "think worst case scenario" [sic]; it seems the relationship is so toxic, the union is assuming managers are trying to pull one over on them, and will be taking a mile for every inch given.

And now, interim union leader Mike Aldrich has taken issue with explanations made by OC Transpo general manager Alain Mercier about service issues. Rather than Mercier's excuses of vacationing drivers, Aldrich said that service problems that have come up through the summer had more to do with these 'scheduling issues' that continue to elude proper, concise explanation.

So we've got a union head who seems open to compromise (Aldrich) standing in for a much more confrontational union leader (Andre Cornellier, who's taken personal leave) in leading a group of militant employees (the ATU 279) to negotiate with a manager who's done little to befriend the union, and a fair bit to irk them (Mercier)--and who, it should be noted, is supported by a mayor who seems enemy number one to the union (Larry O'Brien)--to come to an agreement on issues few, if any, truly understand and may or may not actually materialize into 'operational efficiencies' (scheduling).

Brace yourselves. The end seems far off.

No deal between OC Transpo, union for scheduling amendment

OC Transpo and the City of Ottawa had proposed an amendment to the scheduling agreement reached during their last contract negotiations with the ATU 279 (remember the negotiations that led to a 51-day winter transit strike in 2008-09?), but it was rejected by the union last weekend.

According to a report on 580 CFRA, the proposed amendment would offer operators and eight hours/day minimum (up from the current 7.5 hours/day) as well as six sick days per year (which could be carried forward to a maximumof 12 days in a single year) in exchange for an agreement that scheduling and overtime would not be part of the next round of contract negotiations (which should begin next year).

Both sides, according to quotes in the Ottawa Citizen, are willing to keep communication open and work towards ironing out some issues to get a head-start on the next contract negotiation. Earlier in the week, city council had voted in support of the amendment.

As a transit user, the fact that there seem to be open and reasonable communications between the two sides should be seen as nothing but a positive change. Relations between management and workers came to a head during the winter strike, and haven't seemed to improve much since then. Getting a head start on the next contract, and coming to an agreement on what was the most controversial subject in the last negotiation--namely, scheduling--seems a positive step, and should make users optimistic that a standoff may not be necessary this time around.

2010 Election: Cullen on transit fares

Over the course of the 2010 Mayoral Election campaign, Public Transit in Ottawa will be sitting down with mayoral candidates, discussing their platforms and thoughts on transit in this city, and what they hope to achieve during their mandate, if elected mayor.

Fare hikes are an issue in any major city, but they seem to be especially of concern for Ottawa residents. And for good reason: Besides Gatineau, Ottawa has the highest cash-fare for transit of any major Canadian city. (Gatineau is slightly ahead.) Bringing down fare hikes is certainly an issue for many of Ottawa's transit riders.

However, mayoral candidate Alex Cullen doesn't think that bringing down fare hikes would work in Ottawa's growing transit system--in fact, he's not sure further fare hikes can be avoided.

You can’t avoid fare hikes, unfortunately, but you want to mitigate them. There is a demand curve, and elasticity. We have two clienteles who use the bus: Those who do not have an alternative; they’re low-income, and they don’t have an alternative, so they have to eat the fare increases, even though they have the least capacity. But those who have an alternative tend to be price sensitive, lo and behold. They’ve got cars, they’ve got a means to get about town, they take the bus because it’s convenient, but as soon as that equation shifts, we lose them.

An option that has begun gaining steam in Ottawa is finding a way to make fare increases match inflation--but Cullen isn't even sure that will work for Ottawa, especially given the labour costs at OC Transpo and the city's hesitancy to risk another transit strike.

If you only follow the inflation rate, you only follow inflation. But if you want to expand service, then that’s an additional cost above inflation. We’re going to be stuck with whatever the price of gas is, although, yes, our new buses are far more fuel efficient, and we’re making some savings on that. You want to look at those efficiency factors to mitigate the pressure of inflation.

And the other major component to inflation, of course, is wages. Did I mention ‘strike’? We just went through a difficult strike experience, and I don’t think we want to repeat that again. So we do want to ensure that there is scope to increase transit service.

Still, Cullen doesn't think fare hikes are the only way to offset expansions to Ottawa's transit plans. Although he didn't go into specifics, Cullen suggested that finding room in other parts of the budget to invest into transit could lessen the impact of any fare hikes.

The transit portion of the city’s budget is going to grow. Of course, this doesn’t happen in a vacuum; can we free up some money because of the upload of social services by the province? That gives us some tax room.

2010 Election: Bello on transit as an essential service

a rally during the 2008-09 transit strike

Over the course of the 2010 Mayoral Election campaign, Public Transit in Ottawa will be sitting down with mayoral candidates, discussing their platforms and thoughts on transit in this city, and what they hope to achieve during their mandate, if elected mayor.

César Bello is certainly a dark horse in the 2010 mayoral election in Ottawa. And although he has gotten little media coverage (aside from a feature in Metro, a quick note on Greater Ottawa is all I could find). And although his platform is difficult to navigate (one long web page with ideas interspersed with letters and scattered commentary), his passion was evident during our interview in early July 2010. And his passion was most evident when discussing the Winter 2008-09 transit strike.

Noting the struggles citizens went through during the transit strike, Bello was inspired to enter the mayoral race, and wants to make public transit an essential service if elected mayor.

Positively no more strikes, not here. [The strike] was so painful for the residents. That’s the reason I entered this race.

Bello doesn't think that an essential service designation would necessarily increase costs of transit, suggesting that Ottawa's transit costs--which are the highest in the province--are high because of poor administration, not a lack of money. (A past poll of Transit Ottawa readers showed huge support for an essential service designation, but both the transit operators' union and the city said there was no need for the designation.)