OC Transpo refusing to publish performance reports due to LRT construction

Today I went to the OC Transpo website to find information about recent performance of the transit utility, and was surprised to see that they hadn't published an Annual Performance Report since 2014:

At first I wrote it off as an administrative oversight--I assumed that they had simply forgotten to upload the reports for the last few years, so I used Google to try and find the reports in case they were uploaded to the city's website or some other source.

Instead, through an official response to an inquiry from former Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward councillor (and soon-to-be National Capital Commission CEO) Tobi Nussbaum, I discovered that OC Transpo was intentionally withholding the information. Councillor Nussbaum's inquiry, submitted in February 2018, was as follows:

"I was not able to locate OC Transpo Annual Performance Reports after 2014 either in the documents records of the Transit Commission or on the OC Transpo website. Were Annual Performance Reports prepared for 2015, 2016 and 2017? If so, can these reports be posted on the OC Transpo website? If not, could staff please provide updated statistics for all of the figures measured in the 2014 Annual Performance Reports through to 2017."

In response, in June 2018, officials from OC Transpo said this (emphasis added):

"Annual performance reports have not been published for 2015, 2016, or 2017, as operations have not been comparable to the previous years because of the effects of construction of O-Train Line 1, the Confederation Line. Staff continue to monitor and track key performance measures to identify system changes and proactively make improvements where required, and where resources are available.

"Staff will be developing a new performance reporting dashboard following the transformation of OC Transpo into a multimodal system with the opening of O-Train Line 1, the Confederation Line, which will be based on current best practices in the transit industry."

This, to me, is an unsatisfactory response. Impacts on service levels as a result of LRT construction was to be expected, but that doesn't mean OC Transpo can simply not issue reports to the public. In fact, these reports could have provided valuable context and qualitative explanation to the service impacts that transit users are witnessing every day.

Along with their response, OC Transpo included a table outlining a series of performance data metrics related to customer relations, ridership, operations and maintenance, safety and security, and financial indicators.

There aren't many revelations in the performance data, but a few things stand out:

• Ridership declined again in 2017 to 95.5M trips, the lowest number since the transit strike cratered ridership in 2009.
• On-time performance is flagging, likely due to the effects of LRT construction; 13% of morning peak-period regular-service buses are more than 5 minutes late (18% for Connexion), and 29% of afternoon peak-period regular-service buses were more than 5 minutes late (31% for Connexion).
• No ratings for overall satisfaction were published for 2015, 2016 or 2017--I'm not sure if they didn't ask customers or if they simply didn't want to release the information, but the gap certainly stands out.
• The rate of mechanical failures per 100,000 vehicle kilometres where service was fully cancelled has gone up pretty significantly, to 11.4 in 2017 from 7.3 in 2014. I haven't seen coverage of this, so I'm unsure whether it's simply bad luck or if there are some red flags leading to these problems.
• The revenue-cost ratio, or percentage of operating costs paid by transit users, remains at 50%.

The full three-page table, from OC Transpo's official response, is below (click to enlarge):

City proposes 2.5% fare increase for OC Transpo for next three years

According to a CTV Ottawa report, the City of Ottawa is proposing three more years of 2.5% fare increases for OC Transpo. Here is CTV's report:

Property taxes and water charges are also proposed to increase. The proposal still needs to be voted on by the city's Finance and Economic Development Committee and then full City Council. The fare increases would take place in 2016, 2017, and 2018.

This proposed increase is in keeping with fare hikes of recent history; although the fare increase was "just" 1.9% in 2014 (which just so happened to be an election year), it was 2.5% in 2015, 2013, 2012, a little higher than that in 2011, plus the incredible 7.5% fare hike of 2010.

It's worth noting that all of those increases have been by margins above the national rate of inflation. Add them all together and you get one clear reason why ridership has decreased every year since 2010 and appears to have--at best--stagnated at current levels.

This news, conveniently, comes just one week after I published an editorial in the Ottawa Citizen calling on OC Transpo to freeze fares for three years, while also offering promotions, in an attempt to stabilize the service and increase ridership. Given the ongoing disruption due to Confederation Line construction--which will get even worse when buses are rerouted from the western Transitway in December, just in time for winter snows--OC Transpo badly needs to work towards rider retention. Three more yearly increases of 2.5% certainly won't encourage those with a choice to continue using OC Transpo.

Powerful, heart-wrenching driver's perspective on tragic Sept. 18 bus crash

The September 18, 2013 collision of an OC Transpo bus and a VIA train affected everyone in Ottawa, and the dozens of injuries and six fatalities left us all shaken. I'd long wondered how bus operators made it through the day, and, thankfully, Drives In Circles has offered that perspective and published his account of the day on his website:

A regular passenger gets on my 122, puts an ominous hand on my shoulder, and says "Drive safe today, we're all thinking of you." 

I thought about that strange interaction all the way back to Place d'Orleans. I had no idea what had transpired in Barhaven. When I arrived at Orleans Station, I could see a group of drivers huddled around the front of a bus, one was crying. I parked, and picked up my phone. Twenty texts, all asking if I'm okay, who is it, what happened? I flipped over to Twitter, and I could not believe what I saw.

It's a powerful, personal, and emotional essay, and I'm thankful that Drives In Circles was willing to share it with us. Click here to read the entire post.

OC Transpo ridership down again, three-year lows expected for 2013

As reported in the Citizen and Sun last week, OC Transpo's ridership are down yet again for the third quarter of 2013. From the Citizen's coverage:

"According to newly released figures for July, August and September, OC Transpo gave 21.1 million rides in those months, down 3.9 per cent from the year before."

OC Transpo continues to place the blame on job cuts in the federal public service, although that seems like it's just their best guess--there are likely other factors that could be at play, including the introduction of Presto cards, the phasing out of EcoPasses, recent and continuing increases in bus fares, and construction-related transit delays.

The continued ridership decline means that OC Transpo is expecting to fall below 100 million rides for 2013, despite exceeding that number in 2012 (101 million) and 2011 (103.5 million). It's unclear at this point whether ridership will even match numbers from 2010 (99.3 million), which could mean this year will be the worst for OC Transpo since the 2008-09 winter transit strike.

No one wants to talk about that thing again...

Ridership and regional employment by the numbers

OC Transpo's most recent quarterly performance report indicated ridership dropped by 2.2 percent compared to the same period last year. Whenever there is a fall in ridership, all kinds of theories are tossed around, most of them involving the transit agency: fare hikes, service cuts, bad drivers, etc. While some of these factors will have an effect of some kind on ridership, they do not largely explain variation in ridership levels. The report to the Transit Commission states another factor, unrelated to transit fares and service:

“Historically, changes in employment in Ottawa-Gatineau have explained approximately 80 percent of changes in overall ridership.”

Ridership seems to be closely tied to the number of people employed in the National Capital Region. These are quarterly changes; But how much does employment affect ridership year-by-year? I decided to crunch some numbers myself using annual ridership figures (1996-2012) obtained from various sources: OC's website, a data set in a much earlier article on Transit Ottawa, and monthly employment data of Ottawa-Gatineau region from Statistics Canada. The employment data goes only as far back as 1996. To calculate the annual number of employees, an unweighted average was applied for simplicity.

The data suggests a strong positive relation between regional employment and transit ridership in Ottawa:

About 86% of the variation in ridership can be explained by the number of people employed. When the strike years (2008, 2009) are removed, the relationship is close to perfect:

An astounding 97% of the fluctuation in ridership can be explained by regional employment since 1996, considering OC Transpo serves a small area of Gatineau. But the idea of employment, in general, being nearly 100% correlated to transit ridership is quite remarkable. As we can see, there's very little OC Transpo can do to improve transit usage that will have a similar impact as local job growth.

In order to determine the marginal effect of an additional worker would have on the number of OC Transpo trips, we'll use a least squares regression analysis. With all years included (1996-2012) in the regression, the number of service days affected by the 2008-09 labour dispute is added as a variable. Here are the results of this regression:

As expected, the coefficient estimates of employment and strike days are both statistically significant, even with only 17 observations. This model is a tremendous fit for the data as shown by the R-square of 0.956.

The 2008-09 winter strike is an obvious reason for the temporary drop in annual ridership. The estimate suggests an additional day, weekday or weekend, of the strike decreased 2008 or 2009 ridership by 428 835 trips on average when all other factors are held constant. The number is somewhat high because OC Transpo's figure for ridership on an average weekday in 2012 is 400 000, but appears to be rounded down though.

As for employment, an additional worker in Ottawa-Gatineau leads to an increase of 166 trips or 83 round trips on average, if all other factors are held constant. It's equivalent to nearly four months of transit travel on weekdays. If that person were to buy four monthly passes, that's somewhere between $395 and $488, depending on whether it's a regular or express pass, in annual revenue for OC Transpo. In this case, it's hardly much.

But let's say 500 people lost their jobs in one year and remained out of work the next year. If each worker bought four monthly passes on average while employed, OC Transpo would have lost approximately $197,500 in revenue, on average, the following year. Whether there is a large number jobs created or lost, it will make a noticeable difference in OC Transpo's budget.

Employment seems to have a stronger relationship with ridership on an annual basis than on a quarterly basis. During seasonal changes, other short-term factors emerge like school days, weather, gas prices, or a fare hike. None of them are as economically or statistically significant as the number employed, a variable rarely discussed among everyday transit users going to work.

Transit Commission: OC Transpo added articulated buses and trips since September 4

Much was discussed on last Wednesday's Transit Commission meeting including the recent route changes/cuts/optimization, MacKenzie King Bridge congestion, and Presto smart cards. Here is the recap of that meeting (most of the information is referred to David Reevely's Twitter feed):

• Six new trains for the O-Train were purchased for $35 million from Alstom and are scheduled to be in service in 2014. The purchase is in anticipation of the O-Train expanding to Leitrim, which will be assessed by consultants for its feasibility.
• OC Transpo usually runs 175-178 buses on Slater during the PM rush according to OC Transpo Transit Design Manager Pat Scrimgeour. While Slater is close to threshold of 180, it is already experiencing significant bus congestion. From experience, walking from Metcalfe to Mackenzie King Bridge during the PM peak period is faster than riding any bus on Slater.
• Regarding Mackenzie King Bridge, Scrimgeour says boarding and unloading is the issue, and not the pedistrian crossing. They are paying close attention to it. Last week, I saw what appeared to be OC Transpo supervisors assisting with closing the rear doors on the eastbound platform of Mackenzie King during the PM rush. I've witnessed this new procedure on two separate days at 5 p.m. and there hasn't been a noticeable improvement; buses were still backed up to Elgin.
• OC Transpo ridership grew from August 2010 to August 2011 by 6.3%. Increased ridership and decreased service lead to overcrowded buses as experienced by many in September.
• Maintenace Chief Larry Atkinson said around 30 routes per day are served by the wrong kind of bus. This is a high number, but it's possible that there was only one instance of that occurring for each route.
• Since the route changes on September 4, OC Transpo has added articulated buses on certain trips on routes 4, 30, 34, 38, 41, 87, 93, 130, 134 and added trips during peak hours to routes 30, 131, 134, 136, 106. (Metro News)
• Presto Cards are scheduled for April 2012. The smartcards will replace passes and tickets. In theory, there should be fewer lineups at pass retailers near the beginning of the month. While the program will cost Ottawa $25 million and the province $7 million, this is expected to cut costs on administration for tickets and passes. The city has discussed the idea for Presto since 2006.
• Finally, Route 106 will serve the ring road around the General Hospital campus in late December. After continually modifying transit service to this area in the past month, it seems that Route 106 will be fully re-instated and operate like it did pre-September 4.

Ridership grows and sets new record in 2010

Do you notice your bus getting more crowded? OC Transpo has seen a large boost in ridership in 2010 and has reached a new record level for ridership. According to 580 CFRA, “99 million people used OC Transpo last year, up from 83 million in 2009.” OCTranspo.com reports the number as 99.3 million. Still, this is approximately a 19 percent increase in ridership, which is significant because the national average increase was only 4.1 percent. The record for the highest OC Transpo ridership was 95,646,026 in 2007.

So, what happened in 2010 that caused such a large increase? The following are some major events in 2010 that may have affected ridership:

--Update (2:26pm): The 19 percent growth may not be as large as it may seem due to the fact there was the transit strike in late 2008 and early 2009, which caused a decline in ridership during that period and immediately after the strike ended.  Nevertheless, there is still an increase in ridership from 2008 to 2010.

--The Next Stop Announcement System (NSAS) was installed on over 500 buses by October according to OCTranspo.com. NSAS probably does not attract more riders, but it certainly helped the visually impaired, night users, and anyone travelling in unknown areas of the city. Riders frustrated with inconsistent stop announcements in the past were likely more satisfied with the new system too.

--The rise of gas prices in late 2010 have made car users consider taking public transit to get to work. However, there was also a fare hike in March 2010 for passes, tickets, and cash fare. Of course, the increasing price of gas had a role in the rising operating costs and fares. Taking both gas price and transit fare changes into consideration, the net effect on ridership is a bit unclear.

--Two Park and Rides opened on Millennium Boulevard in Orleans and on Leitrim Road in south Ottawa. Millennium Park and Ride can hold 168 cars while Leitrim Park and Ride can carry 292 cars. The new park and rides should be convenient, especially for those who are not within walking distance of a bus stop.  Those driving from the south of Ottawa can park at Leitrim without fighting for a spot at Greenboro and being forced to take their car to work.

--In September, the U-Pass was introduced for the University of Ottawa and Carleton University students. This is probably the most significant factor in the rise of passenger volume. Peter Raaymakers wrote in April about the U-Pass' effect on ridership in the fourth quarter of 2010. The city reported an “additional 300,000 student trips each month” during that time. Although many students take public transit anyway, the U-Pass gave those who drove or biked, an extra incentive to take public transit. Since they paid for the U-Pass through tuition, they perhaps felt compelled to use it.

OC Transpo bus lawsuits underline benefits of light rail

According to the Ottawa Sun, OC Transpo has been sued by a couple of local seniors for bus ride-related injuries. From the report:

Two seniors are each suing OC Transpo for $2.1 million for injuries they received after falling while riding the bus, allegedly because of bad driving.

According to their lawyer, these types of claims are becoming more common on Ottawa transit.

“It’s when (drivers) don’t wait for the people to sit down,” Brenda Hollingsworth said Thursday. “There are lots of accidents on the bus.”

Both statements of claim, which also name the city and
unidentified bus drivers as defendants, were filed in Superior Court last week.

The case hasn't been investigated thoroughly yet, so it's unclear at this point how culpable OC Transpo and the driver in question are in the injuries. Still, for anyone who's ridden the bus, it's easy to imagine such scenarios happening--and with relative frequency, although thankfully not always resulting in serious injuries. Many of the incidents may not even be the fault of drivers, but a natural result of growing bus congestion along bus corridors, general vehicle congestion along roadways, and an ever-increasing need to make good time along routes. Some drivers are certainly more aggressive than others, but even the best driver will have to accelerate or decelerate quickly in certain situation to avoid collisions or other incidents.

But do these incidents demonstrate a flaw with bus-rapid transit (BRT)? I believe they do, even if it's not a fatal flaw.

BRT is a rapid transit option that has many advantages, including low start-up costs and a high level of flexibility. But those advantages also have costs, especially to the comfort level of the ride: Bumpy roadways and aging buses can contribute to a rough ride, and the large number of vehicles each driven by independent-thinking operators will inevitably result in some abrupt starts or stops along the way.

Contrast this system with light-rail transit, or other train-based transit systems. They have higher start-up costs and are less flexible, but the tracks lead to a smoother ride and the vehicles accelerate and decelerate at a steady and (rarely) interrupted rate.

Improved comfort is far from the only advantage that a LRT system would boast, but in the face of a couple lawsuits totalling $4.2M, it could be a pretty valuable one.

All-time high OC Transpo ridership in 2010 Q4

According to CTV, ridership at OC Transpo hit an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2010:

The latest figures from the city show OC Transpo ridership increased by more than five per cent over the same quarter in 2009.

The city says the introduction of the U-pass was a large contributor to the spike. It's estimated the bus pass contributed to an additional 300,000 student trips each month.

The news is good for two reasons: First, it proves that students at Carleton University and the University of Ottawa are making full use of their significantly discounted universal student bus passes. This shows that the investment the city's making is working, and that students are making use of the opportunities afforded through the U-Pass. But more significantly, it looks like there are no residual effects resulting from the winter transit strike of 2008-09. Ridership numbers had fallen in both 2008 and 2009, but it wasn't clear whether that was caused entirely by the service disruption or whether people had found other ways of getting around the city. Although we haven't yet seen the full annual number for ridership in 2010, this most recent announcement suggests we're going to see a spike in ridership compared to past years. OC Transpo's all-time high ridership was 95,646,026, set in 2007.

The predictable relationship between oil prices and transit ridership

In 2008, the cost of oil and gasoline hit record highs. And with them, public transit ridership also hit all-time peaks. It was in headlines across North America for months, as records continued to be broken for ridership. Then, when oil prices came back to earth, driving went back up and transit ridership back down.

Now, with unrest throughout much of north Africa and the middle east, the cost of oil is going up once again. And once again, people are looking at public transit as a way to avoid paying the higher prices for gasoline. From CBS News:

In Pasadena, Calif., Jackie Gilberto rides the rails to her job in downtown Los Angeles.

So why did she ditch her car?

"About three months ago in November when I realized I was spending about $400 a month in gas," Gilberto said.

The train costs Gilberto $62 per month, and she now has plenty of company. Rail ridership in Los Angeles is up 8 percent versus last year -- from 273,756 in January 2010 to 298,180 last January, according to the local transit authority.

The city says these numbers are because of gas prices. Trouble in the Middle East caused pump prices to climb for the 21st straight day Tuesday, adding nearly a penny at the end of the day for $3.517 per gallon.

Environmentally speaking, it's a good thing: If the price of oil gets so high that it begins to reflect the environmental cost associated with burning it off, it will push people to alternative (and greener) transportation options, like walking, cycling, and--of course--public transit.

In Ottawa, the transit system is already pretty darn close to its capacity. Building light-rail is going to increase capacity, but it's still a long way off; if oil prices continue to rise and demand for public transit follows suit, how will OC Transpo respond?

Quarterly performance report on Ottawa's public transit

As pointed out on Greater Ottawa and OpenFile Ottawa, the City of Ottawa released its quarterly performance report for the third quarter of 2010. It's an interesting document with some revealing numbers, and of course some of those include public transit in the city.

All in all, eight measures are tabulated in the report, but I'm especially interested in the first four of them. If you want to read the others, check out the full report (.PDF). (All tables presented herein are copied directly from the City of Ottawa report.)

First up, conventional transit ridership. Although it would be nice to be able to project a full-year total based on the first three quarters, it'd be tough to do so due to the transit strike the spanned Q4-2008 and Q1-2009. Based purely on Q3 numbers, ridership is up from last year, but hadn't returned to pre-strike levels.

Next, occupancy rate on buses. It's pretty impressive that Transitway routes (I'd have to assume that means the 90-series buses, like routes 94, 95, 96, 97) operate at a terrific occupancy level compared to other routes. Considering the 95 runs 24 hours on weekdays and operates at, I would estimate, about 5 per cent capacity for those late-night runs, the daytime routes have got to be very full (and they are). Of note, also, is that occupancy on express and rural service has improved since last year.

Third, on-time performance. I bet if you asked most transit users, they'd estimate a much different distribution of numbers, but routes operating between 0-5 minutes late is kind of perfect. Although as an editorial note, just because a route is on time doesn't mean it does me any good; two on-time buses blasted right by me today, for instance, because they were packed to the gills and couldn't get one more rider on.

And finally, the percentage of trips operated. Again, transit users would likely estimate an even lower number, but it's still worth noting that Q3-2010 is the worst quarter of any of the three years presented when it comes to actual service operation.

Some very interesting figures for transit enthusiasts, for sure.

Funding Ottawa's transit plans, part six: The bar car

The bar car is nothing new on trains. You'd almost expect that on longer-haul trips, a train car offering alcoholic beverages--colloquially, a bar car--would be a much-appreciated luxury for riders.

But it's not only for long-haul riders. New York City, one of the last North American holdouts after New Jersey and Chicago abandoned the luxury, still has the bar car on some commuter rail lines run out of Grand Central Station. The New York Times describes the bar car in NYC:

The cocktails started early, before the train left Manhattan, and by 6 p.m. most of the passengers were already on the second round. Tiny vodka bottles and punched ticket stubs littered the floor. A game of dice by the bar was getting rowdy as a couple canoodled in the corner, beers in hand.

The bar car is a mainstay of the commuting life, a lurching lounge on wheels inseparable from the suburbia of Cheever and “Mad Men.” “The commute is so bad as it is,” explained Paul Hornung, a financial worker, as he sipped a Stella Artois. “This is the one thing you can look forward to.”

This week, with the possibility of increased transit fares looming, columnist Paul Mulshine from The Newark Star-Ledger suggested NJ Transit revive the bar car on their trains to help improve revenue. He says that New York brings in $9M from the service (although I'm not sure how to verify that statement), something that might offset some of the deficit the utility is running (even though they've already taken the huge measure of raising fares by 25 per cent). Says Mulshine:

Drinking on NJ Transit trains is already permitted. So why not make it more civilized? On a recent Amtrak trip to Washington I witnessed a crowd of people enjoying the bar car. Prices - and presumably profits - were high, but the passengers didn't seem to mind.

Unlike many conservatives, I am not opposed to train service. In fact I am of the opinion that about half the people currently driving cars should be on trains instead.

And if New York can make money off this, let's do it in Jersey.

The problem with the bar car? Well, you can't have a comfortable bar car full of people with standing-room only; there'd be no room to sip your drinks, and a significant spill-risk. It's unknown whether the income generated by beverage sales would offset the lost revenue due to a lower-than-capacity train car. The efficiency of the car, in terms of people moved, is not as high as that of a normal train car, so if that's your primary goal, then it's probably not a good idea. If you're looking to move people comfortably, though (and expand the income sources available beyond traditional fare revenue), then the bar car is among the best ways to do so.

Another option, though, would be a 'cafe car', where riders and commuters--especially in the morning--can buy a coffee, a muffin, packaged sandwiches, or other breakfast foods. Lidded coffee cups are everywhere on buses as it is, so you'd expect them to be as commonplace on the train; with less of an expectation of a calm, casual relaxing space than the bar car, a cafe car can be filled with more riders, and even though it might not bring in as much income, it could still be a valuable way of 'upselling' riders and increasing revenues--while also improving service, if it's done well.

A historical look at OC Transpo ridership: Redux

Earlier in September, I posted a basic informational graph on OC Transpo ridership, since its first days in 1972. Just the simple facts: How ridership has dipped and risen over the last four decades.

Seizing on that information, frequent commenter on the site took the data a step further, comparing it to Ottawa's population--and graciously sending me the outcome. A note about the data: These graphs are from 1976, the earliest date census metropolitan area (CMA) was available, and they also only use population information for the Ontario portion of Ottawa (so Hull/Gatineau is not included in the population, although there may be riders from Hull/Gatineau affecting the OC Transpo ridership numbers).

First up is a comparative graph, showing the erratic and unpredictable trend in OC Transpo ridership (the blue line) compared to the relatively steady--and in fact steepening--population trend (the red line). The final significant dip in ridership is partially, if not entirely, due to the 2008-09 winter transit strike, but one fact is evident: The modal share devoted to public transit took a huge hit through most of the 1990s, and was slowly recovering--until the strike.

The trend of declining modal share is demonstrated, in some way, by the graphic below. Although this isn't quite modal share--it's the number of trips taken on OC Transpo per capita. Which shows what was described above: The 1990s were devastating for public transit use in Ottawa, and despite some improvements in the first have of the 2000s, public transit use per capita has drastically fallen off since its peaks in the first half of the 1980s.

Thanks once again to WJM for the great work on these infographics. News reports have been positive in terms of ridership so far in 2010, but we won't know until the entire year's numbers are out whether the strike was a blip on the radar, or part of a greater decline.

UPDATE: Some astute comments on this post. Whether it be by some coincidence or not, OC Transpo ridership per capita's precipitous decline began in earnest around 1983, the same year the Transitway began operation. While it seems counter-intuitive, commenter David summed up reasonable conclusions to draw on the graph as such:

What these graphs show beyond any doubt is that the Transitway has NOT led to an increase in ridership in Ottawa, much as certain BRT devotees (e.g. Andy Haydon) like to think otherwise.

While the fact that ridership, when overall population is taken into effect, went down with the beginning of the Transitway is an undeniable conclusion, it certainly doesn't mean that the Transitway has made public transit less attractive to commuters and riders (although construction of the Transitway, and the delays and confusion that goes therewith, might have done so). It does, however, mean that the Transitway hasn't made public transit any more attractive to commuters potential riders, as evidence by the fact that they haven't flooded OC Transpo--and in fact the opposite, as commuters have in fact fled from it.

A historical look at OC Transpo ridership

Above is a chart illustrating the ridership trend for OC Transpo (click to enlarge), from when the corporation was established in 1972 until last year, 2009. That first year, ridership was 37.544 million. The high point in ridership, denoted by the letter C on the draft, was of 95.646 million, in 2007.

Two of the low points on the graph were ridership dips due to extended labour stoppages. The first was a 20-day strike in 1979, which became known as the 'five-cent bus strike' because five cents was all that stood between the two sides. The second, much fresher in the minds of Ottawa commuters, was the 51-day 2008-09 winter transit strike, which brought ridership down in 2008 and especially in 2009.

The other big dip in the graph came to a head with 64.812 million rides in 1996, denoted by point B on the graph. Ridership had declined 11 of 12 years from 1984 until that year (which also had a 21-day strike to go along with the downward trend). A few years earlier, as a response to the declining ridership, a comprehensive review of OC Transpo operations was undertaken to find the root causes. Part of the problem was almost certainly the steady and steep rise of fares: Cash fares were only $0.65 in 1981, but they broke the one-dollar mark in 1985 and had climbed to $1.50 by 1987, and $2.00 by 1992. All told, fares rose more than 300% in slightly more than ten years. They were brought back in check after the transit strike in 1996, when fares were actually reduced to $1.85.

Since then, fares have continued to rise, although not at the pace seen through the 1980s. Today they sit at $3.25, although the difference between ticket and fare prices has never been greater. But fare-setting is a process of trial-and-error, awaiting that point where the the cost becomes a barrier preventing increasing ridership.

Higher fares mean lower ridership, $4.7M revenue shortfall for OC Transpo

OC Transpo's 7.5 per cent fare increase in March 2010, coupled with mild weather and lower gas prices, have resulted in a $4.7M revenue shortfall for the transit utility due to less than anticipated ridership, according to a report in the Ottawa Citizen:

OC Transpo saw record ridership in December, when 8.4 million passengers were recorded. But ridership fell below budgeted levels after fares went up 7.5 per cent in March, says a staff report that’s to go to city council’s transit committee on Monday.

This year’s final ridership levels are expected to be down 3.1 per cent from budgeted levels, according to the report. Ridership in the second quarter of the year — 22.7 million passenger trips — was 6.7 per cent lower than budgeted levels, it says.

The good news is that the report also predicts a savings of $4.5M in savings, resulting in an overall operating deficit of around $174k.

The concern for transit advocates lies in the less-than-budgeted ridership levels, as much as it does the lost revenue. Given the other possibly contributing factors (gas prices and mild weather), it could simply be a temporary decrease. But if the ridership dip continues, it could be an indication that the higher-than-inflation transit fare increases have finally caught up to OC Transpo, and that some serious changes are in store.

MP Baird supports LRT tunnel

It's had its fair share of critics since the transit plan was launched, but Ottawa's $735M downtown transit tunnel (DOTT) has received a vote of confidence from one particularly notable politician: Ottawa-West Nepean MP John Baird.

Baird wasn't ready to say it was essential (that would be far too committal for a politician, no?), but he did say that in looking to the future, it seems highly likely that public transit will have to go underground in order to satisfy growing ridership levels.

From the Ottawa Citizen:

"By 2017, there just will not be room for any more buses," he said. "If you're not going to build a tunnel, you have to explain how you get that many buses or rail through the downtown core."

[...]

"The city's come forward with a plan," he said. "After the federal announcement, they said they would cut the cost to fit. We've put our money up, and it will be up to them to deliver the project."

He agreed, however, that the light-rail line is a "very, very big project. It's a huge expense."

At the same time, "I don't know what the expense is on gridlock and quality of life if we don't act on public transit," he said.

Voluntary census could hurt transit policy-making

The debate surrounding the federal government's decision to revoke the mandatory participation in the country's long-form census is all over the news, and seems to be growing. Although this website isn't the place to get into detail about the debate (read this article for a run-through), but it's worth noting that some critics think making the process voluntary will negatively impact the development of certain programs, including transit and transportation.

From the Montreal Gazette:

Tim Weis, the director of renewable energy and efficiency policies at the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental research group, said public transit agencies that want to plan new services, routes or incentives for commuters, also benefit from answers to questions on the long-form census that ask people how they get to work.

"When you're looking at programs for energy efficiency or programs for public transportation, some of the things you need to know are the sizes of houses, how they're living in them and how they're getting to work," said Weis.

It is fairly straightforward to see how this would happen, at least if we assume that people won't fill out a voluntary census as eagerly as they would a mandatory census. The city of Ottawa, for instance, is targeting a 30% modal share in public transit users, a statistic readily available in the federal census. Establishing benchmarks for transit policies as well as measuring the city's progress against those benchmarks will, in all likelihood, suffer is the mandatory census is made voluntary.

Promoting public transit through... Air Miles?

The City of Ottawa has announced a new partnership, offering an interesting new promotion for transit users (or at least those who happen to be Air Miles cardholders):

AIR MILES Collectors can now redeem 650 reward miles to obtain a Regular Adult Monthly Pass by visiting AIR MILES at www.airmiles.ca and logging on to the My Planet Rewards page. Along with more than 100 other environmentally responsible products available through the AIR MILES My Planet program, the selection of an OC Transpo pass gives Ottawa’s AIR MILES Collectors the opportunity to take public transit, leave their cars at home, and make a personal commitment to reducing their own carbon footprint.

As I said before, an interesting promotion, and definitely a reflection of "'out of the box' thinking"--as Bay Ward Councillor and Transit Committee Chair Alex Cullen called it. OC Transpo's not the first public transit utility to offer the promotion, though; Edmonton also offers an adult bus pass for 650 Air Miles, and the Toronto Transit Commission offers one for 850 Air Miles.

Although it's targeted at new users, it's as valuable to frequent existing riders, as well. Any readers considering taking advantage of the offer?

Ottawa Citizen gives two cents on transit issues of the day

The Ottawa Citizen has published an editorial on public transit in our city for each of the past two days, each of which speaks to a pressing issue in the public transit debate today.

On Wednesday, the Citizen spoke of a rise in complaints received by OC Transpo--including, of course, some stemming from their inability to ensure bus drivers are calling out stops regularly. According to the story, OC Transpo has had a 24 per cent increase in complaints over the last three years, and the Citizen's editorial board had some choice words for OC Transpo General Manager Alain Mercier:

It isn't Alain Mercier's job to justify the high number of complaints that come in to OC Transpo. It's his job to reduce that number.

[...]

The 24-per-cent increase in complaints over three years is partly due to an increase in ridership. But ridership only increased by about 13 per cent in that period. Clearly, there's something else going on.

Mercier, the general manager of OC Transpo, points out that the service is also getting more compliments than it used to. That's nice, but it can't compensate for the rise in complaints. If your bus is late, or zooms right past you, or narrowly misses hitting a cyclist, or runs a red light, it doesn't really matter that on another bus somewhere in Ottawa, a driver gave someone a friendly smile. We shouldn't be aiming for a compliments-to-complaints ratio that evens out. We should be aiming for a baseline, a bare minimum, of reliable, safe, friendly service.

Then, on Thursday, the Citizen responded with kudos to Ottawa West-Nepean MPP Jim Watson for his concerns over funding the city's ambitious and expensive light-rail transit plan:

Watson, a former mayor, says there were public concerns about costs in the first cancelled light-rail plan, which weighed in at $884 million. He's right.

To be more specific, city staff had estimated that the north-south plan would cost somewhere in the range of $600 million. However when the competitive bidding process took place, it became apparent that the staff estimates were about $200 million too low. That spooked the public, and politicians capitalized on the escalating costs -- not the least of whom were Mayor Larry O'Brien and Transport Minister John Baird, the top local federal minister.

Oddly, the new rail plan with a shiny tunnel and much more majestic ambitions costs about $5 billion and yet Ottawans don't seem to mind much at all. But Watson does, and good on him. Remember that the city was stretched to cover the costs of the original plan at about one-fifth the price. Remember, too, that $10 million of civic expenses translates into roughly a one-year, one-per-cent increase in your property taxes. One wonders how much of that $5 billion will land on your tax bill. Watson is concerned about that and is sitting down with city politicians and staff to crunch costs and feasibility with his people in Toronto. What he has found is that this plan costs a lot of money -- so much so that he is worried about its feasibility. So he should be.

Both editorials present a good case, and are good reads, to boot. Feel free to comment on either of them, and the issues presented within, in the comments.

Riders return faster than expected

OC Transpo ridership has rebounded quickly and strongly after the city's 52-day winter transit strike, according to Bay Ward Councillor and Transit Committee Chair Alex Cullen.

From 580 CFRA:

Statistics released this week show ridership returned to near normal levels in March as service resumed following the strike by drivers, dispatchers and mechanics.

Councillor Alex Cullen tells CFRA News conventional wisdom was that after a strike residents would have developed other habits, and it would have taken a while for ridership to return to pre-strike levels.

This is good news for Ottawa, particularly as City Council begins to push hard for federal and provincial funding for their $5B light-rail transit plan. High levels of relatively consistent ridership, as demonstrated by this quick return to the buses, is necessary to justify the need for a light-rail system which only becomes economical if ridership stays high.