Updated: Survey results appear to be inconsistent

Update (March 24): I misinterpreted what "we report on the percentage of survey respondents who give a rating of 6 or higher" meant. It's not a subset of the sample, but it's exactly how it's described: a percentage of those who rated 6 or higher. So, yes, about half of females feel safe waiting for a bus late at night. As I looked through some of the summarized results sent to OC Transpo, which were made available today, from the survey research firm Core Strategies, some of the numbers regarding service weren't consistent with what OC had presented. A rating of 7.3 was given to route planning in OC Transpo presentation slides, but in the newly released document, a 6.7 rating was listed. Stats on safety appear to be consistent, so there's less concern with the results of safety questions now from what I can see. Summary tables of each survey question were published via the Sun's Jon Willing.

OC Transpo presented its 2013 survey results on customer satisfaction to the Transit Commission on Wednesday. The transit agency received a rating of at least "good" from 80% of transit users in a sample of 1525 transit and non-transit users in Ottawa. It's the highest proportion since 2008, when the winter strike began in December. The telephone survey, which has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points overall and 4 percentage points for transit users, was conducted in November and December.

Ratings on various aspects of service quality rise compared to the past few years. Route planning increased by nearly a whole point in one year (from 6.4 in 2012 to 7.3 in 2013), even though there have been no major routing changes since "route optimization" in 2011. A 7.3 rating for planning, is in fact, the highest in any one year going back to 2008.

This year, OC Transpo has included more questions about safety, which they keep saying is their number one priority. The statistics on customer feelings towards safety are not based on the sample, but on a subset of it. Only those who gave OC Transpo a favourable rating on safety were counted: "We report on the percentage of survey respondents who give a rating of 6 or higher" (on slides 35, 40, 44). So, anyone reporting a "5" or less are inexplicably excluded. It means, for example, the proportion of female customers who feel safe waiting for a bus late at night is probably not 49% as stated. It's very likely to be much lower when the less satisfied respondents are included. Percentages in the high 90's are probably far away from the true values too.

A whole survey section is dedicated to safety and security and somehow, meaningful statistics are hidden from public viewing.

Confederation Line stations should be designed "with safety in mind"

During yesterday's Transit Commission's presentation on OC Transpo's safety initiatives (which came on the heels of a good deal of negative press surrounding the utility's response to recent sexual assaults), General Manager John Manconi brought up the importance of considering safety in the initial design of transit stations. As tweeted by David Reevely:

They're training staff on improving safety through "environmental design." E.g. designing stations with safety in mind.
— David Reevely live (@ReevelyLive) August 21, 2013

I've talked in the past about designing stations in such a way, including Lincoln Fields Station recently as well as Eagleson Park and Ride a couple years ago. Despite the obviousness of considering safety when designing and building these stations, it seems rarely executed proactively. That's a real shame, for two reasons:

1. If stations aren't designed with safety in mind, then they tend to be unsafe for riders. (Obviously.)
2. It's always cheaper and more effective to design with safety in mind than to retrofit stations to make them safer.

With this in mind, it behooves the city to consider safety as the designs of Ottawa's newest transit stations are finalized--especially those within the downtown tunnel. If the most recently-issued concept designs of the Lyon, Parliament, and Rideau stations are accurate, then the city needs to re-assess their design in order to make them safer.

These conceptual images below show a "side platform" configuration for all three underground stations, with eastbound and westbound platforms separated by the tracks themselves (and a big fence/barrier between them). I'm not sure why the choice was made to use side-platforms; they tend to be somewhat less crowded/hectic for riders and offer the potential for more retail space, but I've yet to read justification from the city's side.

Lyon Station:

Parliament Station:

Rideau Station:

They all look pretty similar (a separate problem), and they're all designed with side platforms--which goes against the recommendation that all three stations feature 180-metre long centre platforms, which was made in the December 2009 Planning and Environmental Assessment study. This image, from that study, shows the difference:

As you can see, the centre-platform design features a much more open area for riders. It would definitely be hectic during rush hour, and may even be slightly confusing for infrequent users unless there's ample very clear signage of which trains go where. On the other hand, getting from the westbound to eastbound platforms is an easy couple of steps, as opposed to a couple flights of stairs.

Outside of rush hour, though, the openness of the centre platform is a boon to safety and security. More people are congregating in one area, which is safer (and is the motivation for OC Transpo's current "Night Stop" program). It's also easier for security guards to monitor, and sightlines are greatly improved so people can be vigilant and respond to or report any unusual activity. There are also fewer places for people to hide, lowering the risk of surprise robberies or assaults.

In short, it's a design that makes safety its first priority and doesn't unduly interfere with service in any way that can't be offset with proper signage. If Ottawa is truly going to design its future transit stations with safety in mind, opting for centre platforms would be a good place to start.

Ridership and regional employment by the numbers

OC Transpo's most recent quarterly performance report indicated ridership dropped by 2.2 percent compared to the same period last year. Whenever there is a fall in ridership, all kinds of theories are tossed around, most of them involving the transit agency: fare hikes, service cuts, bad drivers, etc. While some of these factors will have an effect of some kind on ridership, they do not largely explain variation in ridership levels. The report to the Transit Commission states another factor, unrelated to transit fares and service:

“Historically, changes in employment in Ottawa-Gatineau have explained approximately 80 percent of changes in overall ridership.”

Ridership seems to be closely tied to the number of people employed in the National Capital Region. These are quarterly changes; But how much does employment affect ridership year-by-year? I decided to crunch some numbers myself using annual ridership figures (1996-2012) obtained from various sources: OC's website, a data set in a much earlier article on Transit Ottawa, and monthly employment data of Ottawa-Gatineau region from Statistics Canada. The employment data goes only as far back as 1996. To calculate the annual number of employees, an unweighted average was applied for simplicity.

The data suggests a strong positive relation between regional employment and transit ridership in Ottawa:

About 86% of the variation in ridership can be explained by the number of people employed. When the strike years (2008, 2009) are removed, the relationship is close to perfect:

An astounding 97% of the fluctuation in ridership can be explained by regional employment since 1996, considering OC Transpo serves a small area of Gatineau. But the idea of employment, in general, being nearly 100% correlated to transit ridership is quite remarkable. As we can see, there's very little OC Transpo can do to improve transit usage that will have a similar impact as local job growth.

In order to determine the marginal effect of an additional worker would have on the number of OC Transpo trips, we'll use a least squares regression analysis. With all years included (1996-2012) in the regression, the number of service days affected by the 2008-09 labour dispute is added as a variable. Here are the results of this regression:

As expected, the coefficient estimates of employment and strike days are both statistically significant, even with only 17 observations. This model is a tremendous fit for the data as shown by the R-square of 0.956.

The 2008-09 winter strike is an obvious reason for the temporary drop in annual ridership. The estimate suggests an additional day, weekday or weekend, of the strike decreased 2008 or 2009 ridership by 428 835 trips on average when all other factors are held constant. The number is somewhat high because OC Transpo's figure for ridership on an average weekday in 2012 is 400 000, but appears to be rounded down though.

As for employment, an additional worker in Ottawa-Gatineau leads to an increase of 166 trips or 83 round trips on average, if all other factors are held constant. It's equivalent to nearly four months of transit travel on weekdays. If that person were to buy four monthly passes, that's somewhere between $395 and $488, depending on whether it's a regular or express pass, in annual revenue for OC Transpo. In this case, it's hardly much.

But let's say 500 people lost their jobs in one year and remained out of work the next year. If each worker bought four monthly passes on average while employed, OC Transpo would have lost approximately $197,500 in revenue, on average, the following year. Whether there is a large number jobs created or lost, it will make a noticeable difference in OC Transpo's budget.

Employment seems to have a stronger relationship with ridership on an annual basis than on a quarterly basis. During seasonal changes, other short-term factors emerge like school days, weather, gas prices, or a fare hike. None of them are as economically or statistically significant as the number employed, a variable rarely discussed among everyday transit users going to work.

Mark Johnson is Ottawa's newest transit commissioner

Although this news is nearly four months old by now, it had completely flown under my radar until yesterday: The City of Ottawa's Transit Commission filled its vacant citizen commissioner position in April with the selection of Mark Johnson, a public servant from Barrhaven.

Johnson is an everyday transit user--currently the only one on the transit commission--and seems like he's looking towards being an active member: During his first meeting, he peppered city staff with a variety of questions about OC Transpo. He's also very active on Twitter, and can be found at @Commish_Johnson.

On the other hand, Johnson has no technical experience in transit planning (at least as far as I can tell). He seems like an energetic and ambitious new member, there's no doubt about that, but I still have questions about the value of the transit commission as it's currently configured. I've long been critical of the commission's structure, but I'm still optimistic there's a place for an independent commission. Johnson's passion will hopefully rattle the commission a little bit and push for some more outside-the-box thinking, but the commission still has a long way to go before it's really adding much more value than the previous transit committee.

Take, for instance, a recent vote on security cameras on OC Transpo buses: Although three of the civilian commissioners wanted to retrofit the existing fleet with cameras in the hopes of improving security today, they were out-voted by the city councillors who comprise the bulk of the committee (their are eight councillors and just four civilian commissioners). The Committee instead decided to insist only future bus purchases include cameras, which isn't really meaningful since the city's bought hundreds of new buses since 2010 (including $155M for 226 articulated buses in 2010 and $82M for 75 double-deckers in 2011), its oldest buses are from 2003, and there are no immediate plans to purchase any new buses.

I'm hopeful Johnson can energize the committee and challenge his fellow commissioners and inspire a bit more activity among them. In my mind, one of OC Transpo's biggest problems is with groupthink and inertia that results in a reluctance to challenge existing ideas and look for new ways to solve the many problems its system faces; the transit commission, even in its current form, can change that. But it won't be easy.

In the Year 2012: Presto Cards

Last Thursday, OC Transpo General Manager Alain Mercier presented the 2012 Business Plan to the Transit Commission. The 36-page document can be found here. Over the course of this week, we will look at this plan and pick out the highlights. Everything from operating costs to park and rides will be discussed.First, let's take a look at Presto.

As many of you are aware, Presto cards will be launching later this year to replace paper tickets and passes. These cards are transferable between anyone in the same fare group. For example, if you pay student fare, you may give your Presto card to another person who also pays the student fare – of course, you can't be on the bus or O-Train at the same time.

Another benefit with Presto is the different methods of payments you can choose to reload your card: internet, phone, mail, or in person. This should reduce the lengthy line-ups for passes each month. There is also an option to have your pass automatically purchased for the next month, which is adds to the convenience.

OC Transpo wants to simplify the system to two types of fares for students, adults, and seniors: single trip fares (similar to the existing ticket for less frequent travellers) and monthly passes. Since Presto does not use paper transfers, it might be difficult for most people to remember how much time is left on their single-fare.  The plan does not go into the specifics of how the whole fare system will be implemented. However, it might best for OC Transpo to install balance checkers at each Transitway station, on buses, and the O-Train.

Express fares will remain for express routes and the Day Pass, Family Pass, and U-Pass will continue. But, semester passes will be discontinued and the annual passes have stopped since December of last year. There was no mention of children's fare in the report but, it would make sense to have a fare for children, 6-11 years old, as they always have.

More on Presto can be found on OC Transpo's site and on Presto's site.

Transit Commission: OC Transpo added articulated buses and trips since September 4

Much was discussed on last Wednesday's Transit Commission meeting including the recent route changes/cuts/optimization, MacKenzie King Bridge congestion, and Presto smart cards. Here is the recap of that meeting (most of the information is referred to David Reevely's Twitter feed):

• Six new trains for the O-Train were purchased for $35 million from Alstom and are scheduled to be in service in 2014. The purchase is in anticipation of the O-Train expanding to Leitrim, which will be assessed by consultants for its feasibility.
• OC Transpo usually runs 175-178 buses on Slater during the PM rush according to OC Transpo Transit Design Manager Pat Scrimgeour. While Slater is close to threshold of 180, it is already experiencing significant bus congestion. From experience, walking from Metcalfe to Mackenzie King Bridge during the PM peak period is faster than riding any bus on Slater.
• Regarding Mackenzie King Bridge, Scrimgeour says boarding and unloading is the issue, and not the pedistrian crossing. They are paying close attention to it. Last week, I saw what appeared to be OC Transpo supervisors assisting with closing the rear doors on the eastbound platform of Mackenzie King during the PM rush. I've witnessed this new procedure on two separate days at 5 p.m. and there hasn't been a noticeable improvement; buses were still backed up to Elgin.
• OC Transpo ridership grew from August 2010 to August 2011 by 6.3%. Increased ridership and decreased service lead to overcrowded buses as experienced by many in September.
• Maintenace Chief Larry Atkinson said around 30 routes per day are served by the wrong kind of bus. This is a high number, but it's possible that there was only one instance of that occurring for each route.
• Since the route changes on September 4, OC Transpo has added articulated buses on certain trips on routes 4, 30, 34, 38, 41, 87, 93, 130, 134 and added trips during peak hours to routes 30, 131, 134, 136, 106. (Metro News)
• Presto Cards are scheduled for April 2012. The smartcards will replace passes and tickets. In theory, there should be fewer lineups at pass retailers near the beginning of the month. While the program will cost Ottawa $25 million and the province $7 million, this is expected to cut costs on administration for tickets and passes. The city has discussed the idea for Presto since 2006.
• Finally, Route 106 will serve the ring road around the General Hospital campus in late December. After continually modifying transit service to this area in the past month, it seems that Route 106 will be fully re-instated and operate like it did pre-September 4.

Complaints, complaints, complaints against OC Transpo and STO

It seems like over the last few weeks we've seen a spat of articles about complaints made against our local transit authorities, OC Transpo and STO. Rather than delve into them one by one, it seems sensible to discuss them here.

Most of us remember the STO operator who was filmed doing paperwork while driving along one of Gatineau's busiest streets a couple of weeks ago. It looked like he was disciplined, but not fired, for the transgression. His union is working on protecting driver privacy by ensuring riders can't film drivers, but the Ottawa Citizen's David Reevely argues that the freedom to record drivers breaking rules (especially when they endanger the lives of the riders they're carrying) can be a pretty useful thing.

Don't think there haven't been complaints about OC Transpo, though. The Ottawa Citizen reported a few weeks ago that riders made 178 complaints about drivers using electronic devices behind the wheel between the year-long period from April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2011. ATU 279 president Garry Queale questioned the number of legitimate complaints in that pool and transit commissioner Keith Egli downplayed the number of complaints, while a letter-writer to the Citizen wondered why people would make up complaints about such a specific violation.

Finally, one OC Transpo operator is facing allegations that he left his bus idling while he picked up some "groceries" from the LCBO.

And, of course, Twitter and other social media are always filled with complaints about OC Transpo.

The problem with complaining about public transit is that, sometimes, the delay you're experiencing isn't anything that could have been avoided. Take the massive delays yesterday along the Transitway between Hurdman and Laurier Station due to a collision between a bus and a pedestrian. I saw the grisly aftermath of that collision as I took the bus down the roadway, but even seeing that didn't stop people on my bus from complaining. And that's disrespectful to the person who is now in critical condition, to the driver who's likely dealing with a lot of trauma of his own as a result of it, and it's a shame.

Next time you're complaining about OC Transpo service, take a minute to consider the possibility that it's not necessarily managerial incompetence that's made you a few minutes late.

Ottawa Transit Commission results from a series of baffling decisions

Shortly after the announcement of the four public representatives for Ottawa's new Transit Commission were three lawyers and a management accountant with nothing in the way of actual transit experience, there was a fairly unanimous response: These are our public representatives? Comments on this site and newspapers (like the Ottawa Citizen) wondered what unique experience the four would offer a Transit Commission, and David Reevely may have put it best on Greater Ottawa:

I don't remember anybody ever saying that Ottawa's transit system needs more lawyers. I thought the point was to add some transit experts, some people with business experience, maybe a regular person or two. We got three lawyers with no transportation-industry knowledge to speak of, and a general-purpose management consultant.

Reevely went on to say that these four individuals could very well prove to be beneficial to the Commission, and that's certainly the case, but they're still not very representative of the Ottawa public, and especially not representative of the transit-using portion of that population.

But the choice of these four individuals as public representatives is not the first bizarre choice Ottawa has made with the Transit Commission. In fact, since the Commission was established, I have been routinely baffled by the decisions made surrounding it.

The idea of a transit commission seemed to come out of nowhere in the last election, but it was actually one of the most pressing recommendations of the Mayor's Task Force on Transportation when they issued their Moving Ottawa report back in June 2007. That report, however, suggested an "arm's-length operating entity" to separate it from the City's bureaucracy.

The Commission Ottawa established, though, was not arm's length. It was formed with eight councillors and remains fully entrenched in the City's bureaucracy. Realistically, with the exception of the four public members, it was different from the previous transit committee in name only. But it was approved (although not universally) during Council's first meeting.

With the Commission approved, the next question was which councillors would be appointed to it. How representative of the city, notably the core where transit dependency is most pronounced, would the eight councillor members be? Turns out, not very: None of the eight councillors were from urban ridings, including suburban and rural councillors. They could certainly be solid contributors to the Commission (and have been working hard on it, no doubt), but the fact remains that few of their constituents are transit-dependent.

Then, this "interim" Transit Commission went on to make all the difficult decisions of the year, accepting the drastic service changes that come with the OC Transpo "optimisation", which included an $82M double-decker bus purchase (Correction: As pointed out by Joanne Chianello [thank you Joanne] in the comments, the double-decker purchase is not yet finalized; it is pending a business presentation likely within the next month. -P.R.). If the public members of the Commission are equal to the councillor representatives, should they not have had some say or input into this decision process?

Finally, we were left with the appointments of the public members. It seemed very strange that after full council failed to name the public members on time, they delegated that decision to the "interim" Transit Commission, meaning the councillors would choose the public representatives that would be joining them. What message is that supposed to send?

These decisions all boggled my mind, and they make me wonder: With its current structure, is there any way the city's Transit Commission can possibly succeed?

Public members of Transit Commission appointed

On Wednesday afternoon, the City of Ottawa Transit Commission appointed the four public citizens set to join eight councillors to form the full committee. The public members, along with biographies from the city's press release and links to profiles from around the web, are:

Blair Crew: Long-time resident of River Ward, Mr. Crew holds a bachelor degree in Environment and Resource Management, and a Bachelor and Master of Laws (LL.B and LL.M). He is currently employed by the University of Ottawa Community Legal Clinic where he delivers front-line legal services to economically disadvantaged citizens of the City. Mr. Crew has one daughter, enjoys Canadian history and is an avid outdoor education enthusiast.

Justin Ferrabee: Mr. Ferrabee has deep community ties through his professional and volunteer activities. He is a board member of the Strategic Planning Forum, a not-for-profit strategic planning association, a fundraiser for the United Way, and a founding member of the Carleton University Charity Ball fundraising committee. Mr. Ferrabee is currently the President of Totem Hill Management Consulting where he specializes in corporate transformation and change management for both public and private sector organizations. Mr. Ferrabee is a resident of West Carleton March Ward, he holds a Bachelor of Arts and a Masters in Business Administration. Mr. Ferrabee has travelled extensively and brings with him considerable knowledge of some of the best transit systems in the world.

Emily Rahn: Ms. Rahn is a resident of Ottawa’s Capital Ward. She is a volunteer in a wide range of community-based groups from coaching a Glebe Little League Baseball team and Women’s Ringette team to volunteering for the Easter Seals Regatta which allows disabled children to go out for a day of sailing on the Ottawa River. Ms. Rahn is fluently bilingual and holds a Bachelor of Commerce and a Bachelor of Laws with a specialty in civil litigation. Ms. Rahn currently works for the Ottawa-based law firm Perley-Robertson, Hill & McDougall.

Cyrus Reporter: Mr. Reporter is a community leader and resident of Somerset Ward. He has extensive experience in government and complex public policy issues. Mr. Reporter places great importance on his volunteer work with the Ottawa Hospital Foundation, the Ottawa Community Immigration Services Organization, the National Arts Centre’s Gala Sponsorship Committee, and as a past member of the Board of Governors for Carleton University. As the national lead of the Public Policy Practice Group for the Ottawa Law firm Fraser Milner Casgrain, Mr. Reporter has demonstrated his ability to solve complex problems and contribute to the creative development of public policy. Mr. Reporter is a first generation Canadian with a strong ethic towards the betterment of the community.

Crew, Ferrabee, Rahn, and Reporter join councillors Daine Deans (chair), Keith Egli (vice chair), Stephen Blais, Rainer Bloess, Steve Desroches, Shad Qadri, Tim Tierney, and Marianne Wilkinson to form the full 12-person committee.

What would an out-of-towner premium mean for OC Transpo?

Cumberland councillor Stephen Blais, a member of the City of Ottawa's Transit Commission, recently put forward an idea to have commuters from outside the City of Ottawa who use OC Transpo pay a premium for the service. The premium, according to CTV Ottawa, would help cover the true cost of the service, and at least partially recover what "out-of-towners" don't pay to the service in property taxes.

While the idea is still very much in its infancy, it's one that, at least on the surface, seems rational. Since only about half of OC Transpo's operating costs are funded by fares (the other half coming from the tax base), a rider from Kemptville is paying about half as much as one from inside the city line.

By that rationale, though, tourists are also paying far less than the 'true cost' of OC Transpo rides they might be taking, and we're not about to start asking them to top-up their fares. It's always going to be a tricky line to walk when certain people pay for (part of) a service aren't the only ones who might use it.

One possible benefit of the move, according to CTV, would be unclogging the Park'N'Ride lots through the city. Which might be true, but even if it does, that just means more cars driving into the city, and fewer people taking the bus; is that really a positive outcome, overall?

As said above, it's still all hypothetical, and in the investigative stage; it won't even be considered until next year's budget. Who knows, perhaps staff will come up with an arrangement that brings in some extra income to offset the discrepancy, but still doesn't overly inconvenience out-of-town riders; that would be the ideal situation, realistically. But it will be interesting to see if the idea gets much political traction.

Pros and cons of Ottawa's $82M double-decker bus purchase

The City of Ottawa's (interim) Transit Commission has recently approved a purchase of 75 double-decker buses for $81.8M to build up the OC Transpo fleet. Sounds like a lot of money, especially since it's been less than a year since the city spent $155M to get 226 new articulated buses. But, as is usually the case, there are pros and cons to the purchase.

This may not be an exhaustive list (I encourage people to add what I've overlooked in the comments), but here's a quick look at some of them:

PROS

• Higher seating capacity. Although the expected capacity for a double-decker is supposed to be around the same number as an articulated, there are more seats--which means more comfort for passengers.
• Lower road-space per person. Double-deckers are the same length as a 40-foot bus, but have the same capacity as an articulated. Anyone who's ridden through the Transitway at peak periods knows this more compactness can be valuable.
• Lower costs. The new buses will replace 158 older 40-foot buses in the fleet, meaning lower maintenance costs; net savings are estimated at $20.4M.
• Simpler identification. Typically, if you're waiting for an express bus, you can watch for a double-decker. If you're looking for a Transitway route, look for an articulated. Seems minor, but as dozens of buses are driving by you at Bank and Albert or something, it can be a serious relief.

CONS

• Less flexibility. The double-deckers are earmarked for express routes, but there are a certain few spots where they can't run. This reduces the flexibility of moving them around as needed, and will require more planning.
• No garage space. Although part of the $81.8M price tag is $24M for new washing facilities, the new $97M bus garage on Industrial Avenue is not designed with double-deckers in mind.
• Accessibility. There are some concerns about accessibility for riders in wheelchairs, as outlined by CBC. They will likely be addressed, but are initially an issue.
• Loading time. Because riders can't (or aren't supposed to) be standing in the stairs or on the upper deck while the bus is moving, loading and unloading time is a concern. (This is less of a concern on express routes, where stops are less frequent.)

While I'm not sure the fleet--already a very modern one--necessarily needed these upgrades just yet, the addition of double deckers could very well prove a positive move for OC Transpo.

OC Transpo "optimization": The process begins

With a fairly massive presentation at Wednesday's transit commission meeting, the groundwork was laid for the huge service optimization project at OC Transpo. The writing was on the wall for the process, as it's been said since the new council formed that service would be changed--and significantly. What was outlined on Wednesday wasn't a complete turn towards a true hub-and-spoke system, but it represents a much closer structure than the city's been running with for the last decade or so.

Basically, the idea will be to eliminate some routes, consolidate others, and streamline others still (read general descriptions and comments from commission members on CBC News and the Ottawa Citizen). Somehow, out of all those proposed changes, OC Transpo staff said that 90 per cent of trips will remain exactly as they are today; that probably shouldn't come as a surprise, considering Transitway routes of the 94, 95, 96, and 97 form a huge percentage of OC Transpo trips, and aren't going to be changed. For the full picture, check the actual business plan as outlined, or read my highlights from it below.

The bus fleet, in pure numbers, will actually fall for next year: 158 first-generation low-floor buses will be phased out and partially replaced with the purchase of approximately 75 double-decker buses. Those double-deckers would be assigned to long-distance express routes, while articulated buses will be used mostly for Transitway routes, and 40-foot buses would take over local routes. Basically, there will be predictability: If you're waiting for a 95, look for an "artic"; if you're waiting for an express, keep your eyes peeled for double-deckers. The idea is also to use buses for their (perceived) most effective and economical purposes.

And then the routes. The following bus routes will either be unchanged, or have enhanced service: 1, 2, 7, 8, 14, 15, 20, 21, 22, 24, 27, 33, 35, 38, 60, 61, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 73, 76, 77, 86, 87, 94, 95, 96, 98, 99, 114, 118, 122, 123, 124, 126, 128, 135, 146, 148, 157, 164, 170, 172, 173, 176, 177, 183, 184, 186, 187, 189, 194, 199, 245, 261, 262, and 263. So if you take any of those, you're in luck.

One of the possible changes looked at to review is to cut down on route duplication: When two routes have a good number of overlap along them, staff might try to take a "route of best fit" between them to consolidate them into one. Potential candidates for consolidation include routes 3, 4, 5, 6, 16, 23, 32, 34, 39, 40, 43, 57, 62, 63, 64, 65, 85, 88, 101, 111, 112, 115, 116, 117, 125, 130, 131, 133, 141, 142, 143, 144, 150, 151, 154, 155, 156, 158, 160, 165, 166, 168, 182, 188, 190, 191, and 316.

[Addendum: I missed a few routes that might have a reduction of service during peak period service: the 103, 116, 127, 136, 137, 140, 143, 145, 147, 149, 152, 153, 161, 163, 165, 167, 171, 174, 175, 178, and 306, and certain sections of Routes 5, 6, 9, 12, 16, 18, 40, 82, 97, 105, 106, 115, 120, 121, 125, 129, 131, 151, 154, 156, 166, 169, 190, 191, 192, 197, and 232.]

Finally, there's a proposal to cut down on loops and crescents taken by 'milk runs', which shorten the walking distance to bus stops but also lengthen the route and, according to the report, are costly to maintain. Some routes that may be made more direct include 5, 18, 31, 37, 101, 102, 179, 221, 231, and 283.

Overall, the report states that tens of millions of dollars in long-term savings could be found if these suggestions are taken. Which might be little consolation to the people who'll have to walk farther to their bus stop, but I think most around the city would agree that the OC Transpo system isn't working right now: It's trying to do too much, and that's resulting in higher operating costs and worse service. Some changes do need to be made.

Last day to apply for Transit Commission

Just a heads-up to everyone out there who's considering applying for one of the community member positions on the new City of Ottawa Transit Commission: The deadline is today (Friday, Feb. 4, 2011) at 4 p.m.

For more information about the recruitment process, check the city's website. It should be a very competitive process, but if you've got ideas on how to improve OC Transpo service, send your application in.

Information on Transit Commission recruitment

I stopped in to City Hall on Tuesday for an information about the city's volunteer recruitment drive for advisory committees and boards, but personally I went to find out more information about the new Transit Commission.

Although a couple of the recruitment information sessions were sparsely attended, I overheard that there had already been around 40-50 applications submitted for the transit commission, with--at the time--still a week and a half before the deadline. The deadline for applications, by the way, is 4:30 pm on Friday, February 4, 2011, so get your applications together.

A couple of things I noticed while at the info session:

Public transit doesn't pay

Although there isn't any direct financial renumeration for taking part in the transit commission, members of committees will be reimbursed for transportation costs to and from meetings. Those who choose to take public transit, for instance, will be reimbursed for their fares in bus tickets. An odd contrast to that is the reimbursement commission members would receive if they choose to drive: $0.50 per kilometre, plus any parking costs. So paradoxically, it might make more sense for transit commission members to drive to meetings, rather than taking public transit.

City employees need not apply

For all committees, boards, and commissions, employees of the City of Ottawa are not eligible for community positions. The intent of this seems obvious, but it also disqualifies some community members who could very well be the most valuable commission members: OC Transpo operators. Few people in the city have a better knowledge of the system and how it works than operators, but city policies prevent them from serving on the commission.

No benefits allowed

This is a little bit of a silly point, but one thing I'd noticed in the city's guide of conduct for members of advisory committees is that they are not allowed to benefit directly or indirectly from the decisions they make. Makes sense if you're talking about members of the License and Property Standards Committee dealing with their own property, for instance, but any positive decision a member of the transit commission makes would invariably offer them some benefits (assuming they use public transit themselves). That's obviously not the intent of the stipulation, but it might be something worth looking into and re-wording.

OC Transpo fare hike likely this year

As reported on 580 CFRA, Transit Commission chair Diane Deans suggested another OC Transpo fare hike is likely in this year's budget.

The head of the new Transit Commission is warning the City of Ottawa will likely have to increase transit fares for a fourth straight year.

OC Transpo fares increased 7.5 per cent last March, the third straight year transit fares increased.

Council hiked fares in the 2010 budget in a bid to reach a
50-50 split in covering the cost of OC Transpo operations between fares and property taxes.

I'm not terribly surprised there's going to be another fare hike; no one's ever denied there would be one, and with the aforementioned 50-50 split in funding OC Transpo, fares will go up to keep pace with ever-increasing operating costs. Should fares hold steady one year, it would mean either a reduction in service, or an increase in funding from property taxes.

Deans said she's hoping to minimize the hike, though, which is (aside from being an obvious statement) a good thing to hear. She's hoping to keep the rise to around the inflation rate.

Want to join Ottawa's transit commission? Here's how

Plenty of transit users think they can do a better job of managing OC Transpo than those currently in charge. With Ottawa's new Transit Commission, you're getting a chance to have at least some say in the decisions the city makes with regard to transit services.

The city is expected to release information on how to join the Transit Commission, as well as many of the city's other boards and committees, tomorrow (Friday) morning, but I've received a draft-poster from city staff that you can download here.

Some key information:

• These are voluntary positions
• Members must be Ottawa residents and 18 years of age or older
• There is generally one meeting a month, but there may be subcommittee or working group meetings more often than that

If you's like more information, you can contact Diane Blais at 613-580-2424, ext. 28091 or committees@ottawa.ca. There will also be four open houses in the coming weeks:

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

5 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Orléans Client Service Centre

255 Centrum Blvd, Room 340

Thursday, January 20, 2011
5 p.m. to 8 p.m.

Nepean Sportsplex, Hall D
1701 Woodroffe Avenue

Saturday, January 22, 2011

9 a.m. to noon
Jean Pigott Place
Ground Floor, Ottawa City Hall

110 Laurier Avenue West

Tuesday, January 25, 2011
5 p.m. to 8 p.m.

Councillors’ Lounge

2nd Floor, Ottawa City Hall
110 Laurier Avenue West

You can see application details in the city poster (here it is again). They're due by 4:30 p.m. on Friday, February 4, 2011. Good luck!

A change of tone between the OC Transpo and the union

Well this is a refreshing dose of positive news.

Less than a week ago, I posted about early jockeying between the city and the Amalgamated Transit Union (ATU) 279 as the two sides were preparing to negotiate an extension to their agreement to keep OC Transpo buses running. It seemed the hostility between the two sides hadn't faded at all, and didn't bode well for negotiations.

But now, things seem to be a little different. Mayor Jim Watson met with acting president of the ATU 279 Mike Aldrich on Monday to discuss the future of Ottawa public transit (and preventing another transit strike), and Transit Commission acting chair Diane Deans is to meet with Aldrich on Tuesday for the same thing. The two had earlier said their interest was in smoothing relations between OC Transpo and the union, but hadn't done anything to put substance behind their words; opening up communication is a good place to start.

But it takes two sides to negotiate, and it looks like Aldrich is ready to do so now, too. On Monday, in an interview with the Ottawa Sun, Aldrich seemed to be moving forward with the negotiations:

Aldrich said he’s “looking forward” to the upcoming negotiations and hinted that things will be different with the ATU now under his leadership and not that of former president Andre Cornellier.

“It will be a whole new way of negotiating. We’re going to get rid of the adversarial attitude and get along. We (the ATU and the city) want to have a world-class transit system,” he said.

“This is the public’s transit system and I don’t want to use the public as pawns, we had 54 days of that s**t. It’s the last thing we want.”

There's some passion there, and it's a passion to find a proper agreement before push comes to shove and a strike seems inevitable. All of a sudden, I'm fairly optimistic these two sides can figure this thing out.

New transit commission dominated by suburban councillors

City council's nominating committee submitted its list of councillors slotted on to the various boards, committees, and commissions on Tuesday. Although they will still need to be approved by full council, the new transit commission has eight councillors on it, according to the Ottawa Sun: Stephen Blais, Rainer Bloess, Diane Deans, Steve Desroches, Keith Egli, Shad Qadri, Tim Tierney and Marianne Wilkinson.

One thing you'll likely notice immediately is the heavy presence of suburban councillors, and very little in the way of true 'urban' representation among councillors. Five of the proposed members serve ridings outside the Greenbelt (Stephen Blais [Cumberland], Rainer Bloess [Innes], Steve Desroches [Gloucester-South Nepean], Shad Qadri [Stittsville], and Marianne Wilkinson [Kanata North]), while another two (Diane Deans [Gloucester-Southgate] and Keith Egli [Knoxdale-Merivale]) are just inside the Greenbelt, with their ridings encompassing the outskirts of Ottawa proper and significant portions of the Greenbelt.

Only Tim Tierney (Beacon Hill-Cyrville) represents a ward entirely within the Greenbelt. There is no downtown representation among councillors on the commission.

That's not to say these councillors won't be able to serve admirably on the commission, but it does mean that their direct constituents will rely on, at worst, a hybrid transportation strategy that will almost certainly include the bus complemented by a personal car. How this might affect the strategy OC Transpo employs moving forward remains to be seen.

The transit commission still needs to be filled out with four public citizens. It also remains to be seen how these commission members will be selected. According to Wilkinson, the position will be advertised in local papers and on Ottawa's website; according to Deans, the advertisements should be posted early in the new year.

Council approves transit commission

In their first meeting after being sworn in, the new Ottawa City Council approved the creation of an arm's-length transit commission to manage OC Transpo. It was one among several governance changes made, as reported by CBC. The commission is expected to be up and running in just under a year, by September 2011.

The commission was a pillar of mayor Jim Watson's campaign, among the first announcements he made and likely the most significant promise he made for transit in the city. The composition of the commission will be somewhat larger than what Watson had originally suggested, with 12 members total: Eight councillors, and four members of the public with some specialization in transit issues (Watson's original plan was "probably 5-6 members of council, and probably 2-3 members of the public").

The commission wasn't universally supported by council, and some other commenters--notably David Reevely--have publicly wondered what it will do that the transit committee couldn't. The committee, in Watson's vision, will be able to focus more on the operation of the transit utility, and less on political motivations. The establishment of some arm's-length committee was also among the key recommendations of Larry O'Brien's mayor's task force on transportation, and both O'Brien and Andy Haydon were two other mayoral candidates who had announced their intention to establish a transit commission, if elected mayor.

Specifics aren't clear at the moment, so it's unclear what the qualifications are for a member of the public to apply for consideration on the committee, nor what the process would be. I will offer that information when it becomes available.

2010 Election: O'Brien's transit commission

Over the course of the 2010 Mayoral Election campaign, Public Transit in Ottawa will be sitting down with as many mayoral candidates as are available, discussing their platforms and thoughts on transit in this city, and what they hope to achieve during their mandate, if elected mayor.

One of the common threads of some of the most well-known candidates in the 2010 mayoral election has been the desire to establish a transit commission to manage the day-to-day operations of OC Transpo. Incumbent Larry O'Brien is one candidate who has thrown his support behind the idea, suggesting that some councillors approach issues with too much of a ward-centric approach.

I think it’s nothing short of bizarre who are supposed to act as a board of directors are arguing over bus routes.

[...]

We have things that we’re supposed to be responsible for, and one of them isn’t determining what the bus routes should be in the city of Ottawa. That’s all about service, and I think that should be far, far away from politics. That should be a decision as to how a city works well, not who’s got the best arguments for adding four routes in their ward.

Under O'Brien's model, the transit commission would have some city council presence, but would be made up mostly of independent professionals.

I think it’s primarily independent, with, just like the hydro board where we have three or four councillors on it. Instead of being on a transit committee, they could be on the transit commission. They would be our representatives on the board, and the balance of the board—the majority of the board—being outside people. Perhaps somebody from the federal government, and also people who are professionals in terms of running a transit system.