After I found the 2010 ridership data for “Ridership grows and sets new record in 2010”, I stumbled upon on-time performance data for January- June 2010 and July-December 2010 . The data samples capture the morning peak hours only: 6 am to 9 am.
If your routes have not been altered much for September, you should check out these documents to see how often your routes were early or late.
Glen McGregor, of the Ottawa Citizen, wrote an extensive report on OCTranspo reliability last year using GPS data from April 2009 to March 2010. The methodology on data collection and further details on the data can be found there. McGregor points out “the data show that, system-wide, 41 per cent of buses are measured ahead of schedule. (OC Transpo puts the figure at 38 per cent on regular routes.)”. That figure has slightly dropped for the period of July-December 2010 at 34 per cent for regular routes.
OC Transpo considers on-time as “running no more than 5 minutes late”, which means “late” is more than five minutes. The following figures are for the period of July-December 2010:
Most likely to be late
Of the six late commuter routes listed above, four start in Kanata, one in Barrhaven, one in Nepean, and none in Orleans.
Routes 7 and 15 do not travel on the Transitway. Routes 15, 82, 57, and 179 are peak hour routes. I'm surprised that routes 1, 12, or 118 didn't make this list since they are known for their late trips.
Least likely to be late
If you were a regular user of route 121 between July and December 2010, you were very lucky. The 121 is a short route and I suspect it has low ridership. The purpose of the route is to serve the Ottawa Train Yards shopping area. To get an idea of how short this route is, during the AM rush, the 121 leaves Hurdman at 7:56 am and arrives at its destination, St. Laurent station at 8:09 am. This is a 13-minute trip during morning peak hours, which explains its reliability. As for the the remaining routes listed, they serve low-density residential areas with the exception of route 183, which travels to Scotiabank Place.
Most likely to be early
The unusually high percentage of early trips on rural express routes 245 and 232 may be due to low ridership and/or low traffic volume.
Do not adjust your computer monitor. Route 105 was early 73% of the time and more than half of its trips were more than 2 minutes early. The fact that these routes were more likely to be early than on time certainly surprised me and one can wonder why this is such a frequent occurrence.
If you regularly use any of the routes listed above, I would be interested to know the reason(s) for their chronic earliness or lateness.